Rublev vs. Popyrin - NBO final tale of the tape

One of the finalists in Montréal isn’t much of a surprise — Top 10 regular Andrey Rublev — but his opponent, Alexei Popyrin, certainly is. At no. 62, the Australian is the lowest ranked finalist since Harel Levy, ranked no. 144, in 2000.

Here’s a breakdown of the Monday night finale in more detail.

Path to the final

Both players have had to deal with rain, wind and playing two matches in one day.

Popyrin has pulled off upset after upset just to make the final, beating four Top 20 players — Ben Shelton, Grigor Dimitrov, Hubert Hurkacz, and Sebastian Korda.

Against Hurkacz in the quarter-finals, Popyrin trailed by a set and 3-1 and he was in an even more dicey situation against Dimitrov in round two, saving three match points in the second set.

“I pride myself on my fighting spirit,” said Popyrin, a former junior No. 2. “I never give up anywhere.

So, for me that's one of the biggest things in my game right now is my fighting spirit.”

In the semi-finals, Popyrin ended the eight-match winning streak of Korda, breaking back for 6-6 in the first set and concluding the set by tallying nine straight points. The first point of the tiebreaker produced one of the points of the tournament, with Popyrin getting things going thanks to an instinctive volley pick up off a net cord. About half an hour later, he officially made the final.

“It's probably the best week of my career so far,” said Popyrin. “I think it's just the quality of opponents that I've beat I think is the reason why.”

READ: Rublev finally getting some wins in Canada

On that note…Rublev had to beat some darn good players, too, especially Jannik Sinner, who happens to be the World No. 1.

In the semi-finals, he followed up that win by ousting the player who got the better of him at the French Open, Matteo Arnaldi. While Popyrin has gone deep in sets and matches, Rublev has only lost one set. And unlike Popyrin, none of his outings have gone past the two-hour mark.

2024 season

After winning the second Masters title of his career in Madrid in May while being ill, Rublev struggled. He won half of his next 14 matches and exited in the first round at Wimbledon. But his hard court record now sits at a tidy 21-7 this season.

Despite dealing with a glute injury at the start of the year, Popyrin played a high quality four-set match against 24-time Grand Slam winner Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. An abdominal strain caused more havoc later in 2024 and the 25-year-old suffered a five-match losing streak heading into the grass swing — where he took Djokovic to four sets once again at Wimbledon. Two more wins came at the Olympics in Paris on clay, before his breakthrough week at IGA Stadium which has him up to no. 30 on the ATP live rankings.

Head-to-head

Popyrin and Rublev have split their two head-to-head matches. In terms of timeliness, Popyrin has the edge. He won just a few months ago on the clay in Monte Carlo, 6-4, 6-4. Rublev only broke once and saw Popyrin hit an impressive 25 winners.

READ: Peroni Nastro Azzuro Refresh: Popyrin surprises Korda

But Rublev prevailed in their lone hard-court clash, indoors in Vienna at the end of last season, 7-6 (5), 6-4. High quality? You could say that. They combined to hit 64 winners and committed only 11 unforced errors.

History in Canada

Rublev had only won one match in Canada in five previous tournament visits. It’s something he noted after the semi-final victory over Arnaldi.

“It feels great to be in my first Canadian final,” he said. “I think I won only one match in Toronto out of how many years I played here. So, it's a great feeling to be in the final.”

As for Popyrin, he had never made the main draw in Canada before this year.

History in finals

Statistically, Rublev is looking good in the final. As a seed, he has never lost a hard court final against a player ranked outside the Top 20 (9-0). But Popyrin’s record in all of his professional finals (at all levels) is impressive at 5-1. Rublev is bidding his 17^th ATP Tour title, while Popyrin tries for a third and his first above 250 level.

Quotable

If Popyrin needed any extra motivation to make the final, well, he found it. He’ll get to head to his next tournament, Cincinnati, in a private jet.

“It's funny because I've never been on a private jet before, so it will be a first for me,” he said. “It was a topic of discussion just before the semi-finals that, ‘Oh, would we be able to make it or not?’ and I'm glad I did.”

Rublev, often fiery on court, spoke about mental health this week. Who did he turn to for help in the last couple of months? A player known for his outbursts, as well as his talent, Marat Safin.

“How funny it sounds, but it's true,” said Rublev. “He's the one, yeah, who helped me. After Wimbledon we had a really nice talk…so big thanks to him.”

Oh, Safin beat Levy in that 2000 final.

Featured photo by: Pascal Ratthé