WTA Power Rankings: Is Swiatek’s Fourth…

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Iga Swiatek has made no secret of her admiration for Rafael Nadal. And in 2024 there is a strong resemblance between the best women’s player in the world and the King of Clay of old.

Heading into Roland-Garros, anything less than a fourth victory for Swiatek would be considered a huge shock, much like how any (rare) defeat for Nadal between 2005 and 2022 was considered an all-time upset.

That being said, the pool of challengers looking to deny Swiatek of a three-peat is full of sharks. All through the clay season they pushed her to her limits and some even knocked her down.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings sizes up the Pole’s competition in Paris.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the clay season began)

1. Iga Swiatek (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 38-4
Notable Recent Results: Madrid and Rome Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (Three times)

If Iga Swiatek picks up her fourth title at Roland-Garros, she would become the first woman to three-peat at a major since Serena Williams at the US Open (2010-2012) and first at the French Open since Justine Henin (2005-2007).

There is no reason to question Swiatek’s status as the favourite. She arrives in Paris on a 12-match winning streak having become the first woman since Williams in 2013 to win Madrid and Rome back-to-back, beating chief rival Aryna Sabalenka in both finals.

A win in Paris would make her just the second woman to win all three big clay court titles in the same year, the Triple Crown of European red clay

- Pete

2. Aryna Sabalenka (+1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 25-7
Notable Recent Results: Madrid and Rome Runner-Up
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (2023)

Aryna Sabalenka is increasingly complete and undeniably lethal on all surfaces including clay. Her commanding serve and aggressive play are critical assets that help her close out points in no time.

At her last two tournaments, she was toppled by World No.1 Swiatek. At Roland-Garros, it’s pretty safe to assume they’ll collide and Sabalenka will be out for revenge.

But for that to happen, she’ll have to do better than her semifinal berth in 2023.

- Sarah-Jade

3. Elena Rybakina (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 30-5
Notable Recent Results: Stuttgart Champion, Madrid SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-final (2021)

While she is behind Sabalenka in the rankings and lost to her in Madrid, Rybakina has done one thing this year that the world No. 2 has not: beaten Swiatek on clay. That happened in the semifinals of Stuttgart, an event Rybakina went on to win.

The Kazakhstani barely lost to Sabalenka in the Madrid semis and has a higher winning percentage on the slower clay courts like Paris and Rome, including a victory in Italy in 2023. She also leads her series with Swiatek, including a 2-0 record on clay. Head-to-head, she may be the biggest threat to the Pole.

- Pete

4. Coco Gauff (-)

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 25-8
Notable Recent Results: Rome Semifinal
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (2022)

Coco Gauff excels on all surfaces, and clay is no exception.

Time and time again, she’s proven she’s got what it takes to storm through the French Open draw. A quarter-finalist in 2023 and finalist in 2022, she plans to make 2024 her year.

Among the obstacles in her way is a huge challenge in the form of Swiatek, who recently ousted her from Rome.

- Sarah-Jade

5. Jelena Ostapenko (+2)

Actual Ranking: 10
2024 Record: 22-9
Notable Recent Results: Rome Quarter-Final
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (2017)

Can the 2017 Roland-Garros champion make the magic happen again seven years later?

Never underestimate Jelena Ostapenko. She’s a mighty rival who does whatever it takes to win, even if that means distracting her opponent. She’s entertaining and capable of great (and not so great) things.

We can’t wait to see how she fares in the second Slam of the season.

- Sarah-Jade

6. Danielle Collins (+3)

Actual Ranking: 12
2024 Record: 32-9
Notable Recent Results: Rome SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (2020)

American Danielle Collins has put forth a formidable 2024 campaign, winning consecutive titles with wins in Miami and Charleston and a semifinal run in Rome on her way to a 32-9 record.

In fact, since the Australian Open, she’s gone 1-4 against the power trio of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, and 25-1 against the rest of the tour.

Collins revealed it will be her final year on tour, and she’s playing with freedom and firepower. The former Aussie Open finalist is more than capable of another big major run.

- Ben

7. Qinwen Zheng (New)

Actual Ranking: 8
2024 Record: 16-9
Notable Recent Results: Rome QF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Fourth Round (2022)

The Australian Open runner-up is arriving in Paris on the heels of her best result of the clay swing, having reached the quarter-finals in Rome. Zheng has some impressive wins in the Italian capital, including a dismantling of Naomi Osaka and a gritty win over Linda Noskova.

Zheng burst into the public consciousness a few years ago at the French Open by doing what very few have managed in Paris: pushing Swiatek to the brink. She managed to take the only set off the eventual champion that fortnight.

- Pete

8. Maria Sakkari (-3)

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 19-9
Notable Recent Results: Madrid and Rome R4
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (2021)

Maria Sakkari was suffering from a crisis of confidence early this year. After an early exit at the Australian Open and disappointing results in the Middle East, it was time for a change.

The 28-year-old parted ways with long-time coach Tom Hill and picked up Jessica Pegula’s former head in charge David Witt. The results were immediate; Sakkari reached the finals of Indian Wells, the quarter-finals of Miami, and has gone 7-3 during her clay court campaign.

The athletic Greek star has played well in Paris in the past, with a deep run to the semi-finals in 2021.

- Ben

9. Ons Jabeur (+1)

Actual Ranking: 9
2024 Record: 6-9
Notable Recent Results: Madrid QF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (2023)

Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur can be one of the world’s very best when she’s in form. Unfortunately, the three-time major finalist has had her share of struggles this season, going just 2-6 through her first eight matches on the calendar year as she fought through a knee injury.

There are signs that the tide is turning.

She reached the quarter-finals of Madrid, tallying impressive wins over Jelena Ostapenko and Leylah Annie Fernandez. The clay courts are a great showcase for her full repertoire of skills, particularly her brilliantly disguised drop shot.

- Ben

10. Madison Keys (New)

Actual Ranking: 16
2024 Record: 10-5
Notable Recent Results: Madrid SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (2018)

Last summer, Madison Keys enjoyed a big three-month stretch, winning her seventh career title on the grass courts at the Eastbourne International, reaching the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, and the semifinals of Flushing Meadows.

After missing the front end of 2024 due to injury, she’s peaking again right ahead of a major tournament.

Keys reached her second career WTA1000 semifinal on clay in Madrid with great wins over Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur and followed that up with an impressive quarter-final appearance in Rome.

- Ben

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Content Editor, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ben Lewis – Host, Match Point Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Mike McIntyre – Host, Match Point Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Roland-Garros 2024 Predictions

Champion

Pete: Iga Swiatek
Mel: Iga Swiatek
Sarah-Jade: Iga Swiatek
Eddie: Iga Swiatek
Hugues: Iga Swiatek
Ben: Iga Swiatek
Pat: Iga Swiatek

Women’s Dark Horse:

Pete: Elina Svitolina
Mel: Elina Svitolina
Eddie: Mirra Andreeva
Ben: Mirra Andreeva

One Bold Prediction:

Pete: An unseeded player will make the SFs
Mel: The final will NOT be Swiatek-Sabalenka
Eddie: Swiatek only drops one set
Hugues: Leylah Fernandez will reach the semis
Pat: A teenager will reach the final
Ben: Naomi Osaka will have her best French Open result

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