ATP Power Rankings: Sinner Looks to Stay…

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The 2024 Australian Open was a hugely consequential tournament. Jannik Sinner’s dramatic victory set the tone for the entire season, where the Italian established himself as the best player in the world, particularly on hard courts.

Now he and the rest of the ATP Tour are back in Melbourne and the landscape feels completely different from a year ago. Rather than wondering “is a new generation ready to wrestle control of the tour away from Novak Djokovic?” the question on people’s minds is “can anyone challenge Jannik Sinner at a big hard-court event?”

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are back for 2025 and in the first ranking of the year, we examine who is best positioned to challenge the Italian star at the year’s first major.

1. Jannik Sinner

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 73-6
Best Australian Open Result: Champion (2024)

Jannik Sinner’s 2024 dominance was historic. It was the third-best season ever on hard courts. His 94.6 per cent winning percentage, a 53-3 record, trailed only Roger Federer in 2005 and 2006.

The world number one started the year by winning his first major at the Australian Open and never really let up on the hard courts. In 2024 he won both hard court majors, three Masters 1000s, the ATP Finals, and the Davis Cup on the surface.

He also enters 2025 on a 14-match winning streak and is 29-1 since the National Bank Open last August. Sinner has been the best hard-court player in the world for a while now and, especially as defending champion, he is the clear favourite in Melbourne.

2. Carlos Alcaraz

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 54-13
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-Final (2024)

Although Jannik Sinner dominated the tour on hard courts in 2024, he did have one problem, and that problem’s name was Carlos Alcaraz.

Two of the Italian’s three defeats on the surface were to the four-time major champion. Alcaraz also won their French Open semifinal on clay to go 3-0 overall against Sinner in 2024. If there is anyone who can stop the world No. 1 in Melbourne, is it probably the electric Spaniard.

Alcaraz has extra motivation going into the Australian Open. A title would make him the youngest player ever to complete the career Grand Slam.

3. Alexander Zverev

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 69-21
Best Australian Open Result: Semifinal (Twice)

Despite not winning a major, Alexander Zverev managed to finish 2024 as the No. 2 player in the ATP Rankings courtesy of two Masters 1000 titles, including near season’s end in Paris, a runner-up appearance at Roland-Garros, and the second-most match wins on tour behind only Sinner.

When healthy, Zverev has always been hyper-consistent and a safe bet to reach the later stages of big tournaments. Last year, he was just a set away from the final in Melbourne and was as close as two points in the fourth set tiebreak of his semifinal against Daniil Medvedev.

4. Novak Djokovic

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 37-9
Best Australian Open Result: Champion (10 times)

For the first time in a long time, Novak Djokovic arrives at the Australian not the heavy favourite to win the title. He is coming off his worst season in over a decade where he only won one title (albeit the one he coveted most at the Olympics) and did not win a major for the first time since 2017.

The Serbian called it a season in early October last year after losing to Sinner in the Shanghai final and only just returned to action last week in Brisbane. That result was hardly encouraging as he was blown away by Reilly Opelka in the quarter-finals.

All that being said, this is Djokovic at the Australian Open. No man has dominated at Melbourne Park like the Serbian, who has more than twice as many titles as the next best players (Federer and Andre Agassi both have four to Djokovic’s 10). He knows how to win here and Djokovic has a penchant for defying expectations.

5. Taylor Fritz

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 53-23
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-final (2024)

At the final major of 2024, Taylor Fritz reached his first Grand Slam singles final on home soil at the US Open. Now he will be looking to take the next step in Melbourne.

2024 was a big year for the American No. 1. He reached the fourth round or better at all four majors and added a pair of Masters 1000 semifinals, including late in the season in Shanghai. He has been making steady progress over the last few years and is now a solid contender at every tournament he enters.

Fritz also is off to a strong start to 2025, going 4-1 at the United Cup and helping the United States to the title.

6. Daniil Medvedev

Actual Ranking: 5
2024 Record: 46-21
Best Australian Open Result: Runner-up (Three times)

Among active players, only Novak Djokovic has reached more Grand Slam men’s singles finals and men’s singles finals at the Australian Open than Daniil Medvedev.

While 2024 was a down year for Medvedev, with his win total on hard courts being his lowest in a full season (2020 excluded) since 2017, he remains one of the best and most reliable players on the surface on tour. Even in a down year, he reached the quarter-finals or better at both hard court majors and at three Masters 1000s.

He has been particularly strong in Melbourne, having reached three of the last four finals at the Australian Open. Although he has yet to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup, he has been a set away twice, leading two sets to love in both the 2022 and 2024 finals.

Also, congratulations to Daniil and his wife Daria Chernyshkova on the birth of their second child, which Medvedev announced on Jan. 7. It could be worth noting that when his first child was born in October 2022, Medvedev won the first tournament he played as a new father.

7. Alex de Minaur

Actual Ranking: 8
2024 Record: 47-21
Best Australian Open Result: Fourth Round (three times)

“The Demon” made a jump in 2024, entering the Top 10 for the first time in his career and qualified for the ATP Finals. While injuries limited him in the second half of the season, he was one of the best players on tour when playing in the big events.

De Minaur reached at least the round of sixteen in all but one “big” tournament (Grand Slam and Masters 1000) that he entered in 2024, including making the quarter-finals at three of the four majors.

The one major where the speedy Aussie has yet to reach the last eight is his home slam, where he has fallen in the round of sixteen for three straight years. He is already off to a quick start in 2025, winning both of his matches at the United Cup in straight sets.

8. Grigor Dimitrov

Actual Ranking: 10
2024 Record: 46-18
Best Australian Open Result: Semifinal (2017)

2024 was a renaissance year for the former world No. 3. Dimitrov reached a pair of Grand Slam quarter-finals, his first trip to the last eight of a major since 2021 and the first time in a decade that he did it at two Slams in the same year, while also reaching the final of the Masters 1000 event in Miami.

His quarter-final at Roland-Garros added him to the list of players to reach the last eight at all four majors. Both his overall record and year-end ranking were his best since 2017.

The Australian Open has historically been Dimitrov’s best major, with three quarter-finals and a semifinal appearance on his record, making it the only major where he has reached the last eight more than twice.

9. Casper Ruud

Actual Ranking: 6
2024 Record: 51-25
Best Australian Open Result: Fourth Round (2021)

Casper Ruud bounced back nicely last year after a down season in 2023, winning a pair of titles and clambering back into the Top 10. While Ruud has historically had his best results on clay, he has reached a Grand Slam final on hard courts before at the US Open in 2022 and reached the quarter-finals of Indian Wells and semifinals of the ATP Finals on hard courts last year.

While Norway went out in the group stage of the United Cup, it was not for lack of results from Ruud, who won both of his singles matches over two opponents who thrive on quick surfaces, Tomas Machac and Hubert Hurkacz.

10. Andrey Rublev

Actual Ranking: 9
2024 Record: 43-26
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-final (three times)

Will 2025 be the year when Andrey Rublev finally breaks the quarter-final curse?

The perennial Top 10 player has reached 10 quarter-finals at Grand Slam events, including three of the last four years at the Australian Open, but has fallen short of the semis each time.

Early in 2024 it seemed like Rublev might be primed to finally break through, only for his season to turn into a rollercoaster that included multiple month-long losing streaks but also included a pair of Masters 1000 finals, including a title in Madrid.

There is no doubt that Rublev has the game and intensity to make a run, it’s just a question of putting it all together at the right time.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Australian Open 2024 Predictions

Champion:

Pete: Jannik Sinner
Mel: Jannik Sinner
Abraham: Carlos Alcaraz
Eddie: Jannik Sinner
Jonathan: Jannik Sinner
Pat: Jannik Sinner
Sarah-Jade: Jannik Sinner
Charlotte: Jannik Sinner
Hugues: Jannik Sinner

Dark Horse:

Pete: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Mel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Abraham: Jiri Lehecka
Eddie: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Jonathan: Ben Shelton
Pat: Nick Kyrgios
Sarah-Jade: Sebastian Korda
Charlotte: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hugues: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Novak Djokovic will not reach the quarter-finals.
Mel: Alex de Minaur will reach the first Grand Slam semifinal of his career at this home major.
Abraham: Joao Foncesca, the 2024 NextGen ATP Finals Champion, will reach the second week in Melbourne.
Eddie: Daniil Medvedev will bow out in week one.
Jonathan: Novak Djokovic’s quest for an 11th Australian Open will end in round three.
Pat: Denis Shapovalov reached his first Grand semi since 2021.
Sarah-Jade: Nick Kyrgios will reach the quarter-finals.
Charlotte: Grigor Dimitrov will reach the semis.
Hugues: Novak Djokovic is eliminated in the first week, while Nick Kyrgios reaches the second week.

The ATP's best return to Toronto this summer for the National Bank Open July 27 to Aug. 7, 2025 at Sobeys Stadium. 2025 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!

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