NBO Montreal Tale of the Tape: Mboko vs. Rybakina

Yes, Mboko sizzled earlier in the year at lower levels but few would have predicted the 18-year-old from Toronto reaching the semi-finals in her main draw debut at the NBO. 

On Wednesday night at IGA Stadium, Mboko meets her third Grand Slam winner of the tournament in Elena Rybakina. 

Let’s delve deeper into the matchup. 

Form in Montreal 

There was nothing to separate Mboko and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro early in the first set of their quarter-final on Monday night. But Mboko’s ability to save break points made a huge difference. 

That hasn’t been anything new for her at the NBO. In probably her best win so far, Mboko saved all four break points against top seed Coco Gauff in the fourth round — the only time this season Gauff hasn’t broken in a match. 

More and more are watching Mboko these days, so they know she brings a combination of attacking play courtesy of speedy serves, baseline drives and counterpunching. 

The lone player to take a set off her is Maria Bouzkova, an excellent mover. 

Rybakina, too, has only lost one set. It came in the fourth round when the world no. 12 was two points away from losing to Dayana Yastremska. 

One of the hardest hitters in tennis, the 2022 Wimbledon champion then spent much less time on court in the quarter-finals, advancing when Marta Kostyuk retired at 1-6, 1-2. 

By contrast, during the 2023 quarter-finals in Montreal, Rybakina outlasted Daria Kasatkina in a three-and-a half hour thriller that ended around 3 a.m. 

“Overall physically, I'm happy how I feel, and hopefully can continue this way,” said Rybakina. 

What’s at Stake

Mboko is only the third Canadian woman in the Open Era — and the youngest — to reach the semi-finals in tournament history after Faye Urban in the late 1960s and Bianca Andreescu in 2019.

She’ll try to emulate both Urban and Andreescu in making the final, which would be her first at a WTA 1000 event.  

Having climbed from her current no. 85 to inside the Top 50 in the live rankings, another win gets her to around no. 33 — close to earning a seeding at the U.S. Open. 

Rybakina is on the verge of making a 1000-level final or higher for the fourth straight season, having done it on all the different surfaces and she would return to the Top 10 with a victory on Wednesday. 

As she said Monday, Rybakina usually enjoys success to start a season. It hasn’t been the case this year, so she’s seeking a second-half bump. 

“I feel like I used to play much better in the first part of the year usually, but it took me some time to get back to level I want to be,” said Rybakina. “I think that now I'm happy how the things are going, and hopefully I can change a little bit what was happening in the past years and play even better in the second part of the year.”

Any past meetings? 

Mboko hasn’t encountered too many players twice at WTA level but she had already met — and lost — to Gauff on clay in Rome in May. On the eve of the rematch, Mboko said she knew what to expect and duly progressed in straight sets. 

Not only has Mboko battled Rybakina already, too, but it happened very recently Washington just two weeks ago. 

Rybakina prevailed 6-3, 7-5 in the second round, jumping out to early break leads in both sets. Mboko had a tough serving day, contributing nine double faults. Rybakina capitalized overall on Mboko’s second serve, winning 63% of those points. 

“I just need to maybe up my level a little bit,” said Mboko. “She has really great groundstrokes, really great serves. So I guess on (Wednesday) I want to do my best to kind of stay in there with her.”

Rybakina’s thoughts? 

“She's a tough opponent,” said the 26-year-old. “She has really good strokes, and she plays fast, and she has really good serve. She's definitely dangerous. She has nothing to lose, and I'm sure she's enjoying out there. Yeah, it's going to be a tough one. Hopefully I can bring my best.”

Photos: Pascal Ratthé & Sarah-Jäde Champagne