WTA Power Rankings: Can Swiatek Reassert Clay…

The first dramatic surface switch of 2025 has arrived as the clay court season is getting properly underway.

In the last few years, this has been a stretch of the season dominated by Iga Swiatek. But the momentum on tour is different this time around as the Pole has not had as good a start to the season on hard courts as she has in previous years, while the world No. 1 is arriving in good form. So is another rising star who has taken the world by storm in the first three months of the season.

As the surface softens, let’s take a look at how the WTA stars stack up on the clay.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before Indian Wells.)

1) Aryna Sabalenka (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2025 Record: 23-4
Notable Recent Results: Miami Champion
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid Champion (Twice)

Heading into the Miami Open, Sabalenka had had a good start to the year but only had one WTA 500 title to show for it, having lost in both the Australian Open and Indian Wells finals. But she reminded everyone why she is the No.1-ranked player in the world over the last fortnight, winning Miami without dropping a set, taking out the defending champion and three Top 10 players on route.

Now she will look to cement her top spot on the clay.

Despite hard court being her best surface, Sabalenka is no slouch on the dirt. She is a two-time Madrid champion and very nearly made it three last year in the WTA’s match of the year against Iga Swiatek. She has also reached the semifinals of Roland-Garros in the past. The fact is a ball as big as Sabalenka’s can bust through on any surface.

2) Iga Swiatek (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 21-6
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells semifinals
Best Big Clay Results: Rome (three times), Madrid (2024), and Roland-Garros (four times) champion

There probably is not anyone in the world happier to be arriving on clay than the surface’s Queen.

Swiatek has had a slow start to the year by her lofty standards. Despite reaching the quarter-finals or better at all four WTA 1000s and the Australian Open in the first three months of 2025, she failed to reach a final on the early hard courts for the first time since 2021.

But now the four-time Roland-Garros champion is back on her favourite surface. She swept the big clay events in 2024, completing a clay triple crown with wins in Madrid, Rome, and Roland-Garros. She went 26-2 on the surface last year. Sabalenka may be No. 1 in the rankings, but Swiatek is the most dominant force on clay the women’s game has seen in decades.

3) Coco Gauff (-)

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 13-5
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells and Miami R4
Best Big Clay Results: Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2022)

Gauff has had an interesting relationship with clay throughout her young career. On the one hand, Roland-Garros has been her most consistent major, having reached at least the quarter-finals in four straight years including her maiden major final back in 2022. On the other, she has struggled at the 1000s, with two semifinal runs in Rome being the only two times she got past the round of 16.

It has been a tough few months for Gauff. She's gone 4-4 since reaching the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, failing to get past the round of 16 in either leg of the Sunshine Double. Perhaps a surface like clay that rewards her speed and defensive abilities will help rejuvenate the former US Open champion.

4) Mirra Andreeva (+2)

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 20-4
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Champion
Best Big Clay Results: Roland-Garros Semifinal (2024)

Andreeva is not a rising star anymore, she’s just a star. She backed up her breakout win in Dubai with a second consecutive WTA 1000 victory in Indian Wells, cementing herself in the Top 10. The teen beat Swiatek and Sabalenka back-to-back to claim the title in Tennis Paradise.

There is not much reason to believe Andreeva will slow down on the clay. Her best major result came on the dirt last year at Roland-Garros, beating Sabalenka on her way to the semis. She has also reached at least the fourth round in both her previous appearances in Madrid and won her first career title on the dirt last July.

5) Jasmine Paolini (New)

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 12-6
Notable Recent Results: Miami Semifinal
Best Big Clay Results: Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2024)

During her breakout 2024 campaign, Paolini proved to be strong on all surfaces with a WTA 1000 win on hard and major finals on clay and grass. The Italian had a slower start to 2025 but will arrive on clay on the heels of her best result of the season, reaching the semis in Miami.

While she has never won a title on clay, Paolini is not to be underestimated. Her Roland-Garros finals run last year included wins over Rybakina and Andreeva. As she demonstrated in 2024, the Italian also has a knack for playing her best tennis in big events.

6) Jessica Pegula (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2025 Record: 20-6
Notable Recent Results: Miami Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid Runner-Up (2022)

Pegula should be arriving on clay full of confidence after reaching the Miami final. It was not the toughest draw, she did not beat anyone inside the Top 25, but wins are wins. She has now reached at least one WTA 1000 final in four consecutive seasons.

Over the years, Pegula has been solid on clay. She has reached at least the quarter-finals at all three big clay events and even got to the final of Madrid in 2022. While that Madrid final is her only final on the surface, Pegula can be relied on to get some match wins and could take advantage of a draw that opens up.

7) Madison Keys (-3)

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 19-3
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Semifinal
Best Big Clay Results: Rome Runner-Up (2016)

Keys made her debut as a major champion in Indian Wells and picked up where she left off in Melbourne, getting to the semis before finally Sabalenka snapped the American's 16-match winning streak to start 2025. In Miami, she was one of many surprise victims of Alexandra Eala.

Last year, Keys’ best results came on clay as she reached the semifinals of Madrid and quarter-finals of Rome. She has also reached the semifinals of Roland-Garros although that was back in 2018. In any case, Keys has shown comfort on the surface and her big-hitting makes her an all-surface threat.

8) Qinwen Zheng (New)

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 7-5
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells and Miami Quarter-Final
Best Big Clay Results: Olympic Gold Medal at Paris 2024

In the last three years, only one woman has broken Iga Swiatek’s aura of invincibility at Stade Roland-Garros in Paris: Zheng. The Chinese handed the Pole her lone defeat on the Parisian clay since 2021 last summer, albeit during the Olympics rather than the Grand Slam event. However, Zheng did also cause Swiatek problems in their 2022 fourth-round clash at the clay major too, so if there is one player on tour who history has proven can push the Queen of Clay, it’s Zheng.

The 22-year-old will arrive on the dirt after a solid showing at the Sunshine Double. She was one of just three women, along with Swiatek and Sabalenka, to reach at least the quarter-finals in both Indian Wells and Miami.

9) Paula Badosa (-2)

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 12-7
Notable Recent Results: Miami Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid Semifinal (2021)

It has been a strange stretch over the last few months for Paula Badosa since she came back from injury in 2024. When the Spaniard is healthy, she often looks like the Top 10 player that she is. But staying healthy still remains a problem.

She missed Indian Wells and then pulled out in the fourth round of Miami with a back injury. The last tournament she finished without an injury withdrawal was Dubai back in February.

10) Elena Rybakina (-2)

Actual Ranking: 10
2025 Record: 15-7
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Results: Rome Champion (2023)

Rybakina is a bit of a contradiction on clay. Her style, which relies heavily on the serve, is not one that often translates well to the surface. However, she has had success on clay before, including a Rome title in 2023 and a Madrid semi last year. She has also won both her previous meetings with Swiatek on the Pole’s favourite surface, including last year in Stuttgart.

There are some concerns for the Kazakhstani heading into the clay season. She did not have great results on the early hard courts which normally suit her better. So far this year, she has lost twice to Swiatek and twice to Andreeva.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Bold prediction for the clay swing:

Pete: Aryna Sabalenka gets a win on clay over Swiatek before Roland-Garros
Jonathan: Coco Gauff reaches the final in multiple stops on the way to Paris as she builds momentum towards Roland-Garros.
Sarah-Jade: There will be different champions at every tournament during the clay swing.
Pat: Iga Swiatek defends both Madrid and Rome titles.
Charlotte: Elina Svitolina reaches a big final.

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Feature Photo : Reuters/Susana Vera