WTA Power Rankings: Sabalenka Fending Off…

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Aryna Sabalenka is coming in on two full calendar years uninterrupted sitting in the top spot of the WTA rankings. But her hold is looking very tenuous heading into the US Open.

Considering her dominance on hard courts over the last few years, there are a lot of questions surrounding Sabalenka as she arrives in New York looking to become the first woman to three-peat at the US Open since Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014.

In order to hold on to the No. 1 ranking, she has to defend the title just to have a chance. And that will not be easy. Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are playing some of their best tennis, Elena Rybakina has that top spot in her sights, and there are plenty of women who have won big titles more recently than Sabalenka looking for bigger prizes.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings has a look at the field for the final major of 2026.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the National Bank Open.)

1) Aryna Sabalenka (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2026 Record: 40-8
Notable Recent Result: WTA 1000 Toronto and WTA 1000 Cincinnati R4
Best US Open Result: Champion (Twice)

As the two-time defending US Open champion and the player who has reached every Grand Slam final on a hard court since the start of 2023, not to mention still being the world No. 1, Sabalenka gets the benefit of the doubt heading into the year's final major.

After all, last year she arrived at the US Open without having won a major yet that year and she managed to secure the title.

Momentum is certainly lacking for the world No. 1, though. After completing the Sunshine Double in March, Sabalenka has not reached a final since. That includes back-to-back fourth-round losses at the summer hard-court WTA 1000 events. Still, the four-time major champion has been the best player in the world on this surface for the last few years and has not failed to reach the final in New York since 2022, or even the semis since 2020, so it would still come as little surprise if she makes it a three-peat over the coming weeks.

- Pete

2) Iga Swiatek (+4)

Actual Ranking: 8
2026 Record: 33-13
Notable Recent Result: WTA 1000 Toronto Champion
Best US Open Result: Champion (2022)

Swiatek appears to be playing her best tennis of 2026 right now. She was brilliant during her title run in Toronto, oozing confidence as she smothered tough opponent after tough opponent. She also did a good job of avoiding the hangover in Cincinnati, following up her NBO victory with a semifinal run where it took a remarkable effort from Jessica Pegula to snap the Pole's 11-match winning streak.

It has been over a year since Swiatek lifted a major trophy but it has also been over a year since she looked this good on court. With a new coach in place, she was one of the best players on tour heading into the US Open, where she has reached back-to-back quarter-finals.

- Pete

3) Coco Gauff (-)

Actual Ranking: 4
2026 Record: 40-13
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Champion
Best US Open Result: Champion (2023)

Those who are superstitious may already have Gauff marked down as 2026 US Open champion. The American No. 2 was back in the Cincinnati winner’s circle for the first time since 2023 – the same year she went on to win the US Open title.

However, it’s more than just superstitions that make Gauff a serious contender in New York. The world No. 4 was dominant in Cincinnati after a bit of trouble in her opening match, dropping the first set to Liudmila Samsonova. From that point on, the 22-year-old won 12 consecutive sets en route to the title, dispatching the likes of Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula in under 75 minutes.

Gauff also reached the semifinals in Toronto but, despite the pair of deep runs, the Floridian will still be fresh heading into the US Open as she only spent a combined 15 hours on court across the NBO and Cincinnati.

- Francesco

4) Elena Rybakina (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2026 Record: 42-13
Notable Recent Result: WTA 1000 Toronto Runner-Up
Best US Open Result: Fourth Round (2025)

There is a very real chance, even likelihood, that the Monday after the US Open, Rybakina will be the world No. 1. If Sabalenka does not defend the title, the Kazakhstani will ascend to the top spot for the first time in her career regardless of her own result. Even if the world No. 1 reigns again, Rybakina could take over the top spot by reaching the semifinals.

Through nine matches during the summer hard-court swing, the Australian Open champion seemed to be establishing herself as a favourite heading into New York, reaching the Toronto final then cruising into the Cincinnati quarters. But she retired after just five games in the rematch with Swiatek with an ankle injury. The seriousness of that injury may be the only reason she is not higher on this list.

It is surprising to see that Rybakina, considering her success on hard courts at the Australian Open and general good play on fast surfaces, has never reached the quarter-finals of the US Open. She has a career 8-6 record in New York, with her eight wins being less than half as many as her next-worst major.

- Pete

5) Jessica Pegula (-3)

Actual Ranking: 3
2026 Record: 45-12
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Runner-up
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2024)

Pegula will be leading the deep American field at this year’s US Open. The world No. 3 has thrived on home soil, reaching at least the quarter-finals in the last six American events she has played.

This summer alone, Pegula made the finals in Washington, then impressed in Cincinnati on her way to another title match. The American No. 1 defeated world No. 10 Amanda Anisimova in the quarters and took down Toronto champion Swiatek in a tight three-setter to reach her second Cincinnati final in three years.

When it comes to the US Open, Pegula has lost to eventual champion Sabalenka in her last two appearances – runner-up in 2024 and semifinalist in 2025 – but this year, will it be the 32-year-old’s time to enter that elusive Grand Slam winner’s circle?

- Francesco

6) Naomi Osaka (+2)

Actual Ranking: 13
2026 Record: 25-10
Notable Recent Result: NBO Quarter-finals
Best US Open Result: Champion (Twice)

There is something for players to be worried about when Osaka is at her best ahead of the US Open. Last season, the former world No. 1 reached her first WTA 1000 final since 2022 at the NBO, then soon followed that up by returning to the semifinals at Flushing Meadows.

Osaka hasn’t slowed down since. The Japanese made at least the quarters in her last four events and arrives at the US Open as the world No. 13, the highest ranking she has held at the tournament in five years. Coach Tomasz Wiktorowski has brought back that spark in Osaka and now, a fifth Grand Slam could be on the cards for the 28-year-old.

- Francesco

7) Mirra Andreeva (-2)

Actual Ranking: 5
2026 Record: 40-13
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Fourth Round
Best US Open Result: Third Round (2025)

Andreeva hasn’t quite hit her heights during the North American hard-court swing, but the Roland-Garros champion was still able to navigate through a few tough tests over Toronto and Cincinnati.

Andreeva conceded just two games in her NBO opener to former US Open finalist Karolina Pliskova. Then, in Cincinnati round three, the world No. 5 won a gritty second-set tiebreaker against Janice Tjen to secure the victory, converting on her fourth match point.

If the 19-year-old can keep her cool in tight moments and find some rhythm at the US Open, she will certainly achieve a new best result in New York this year.

- Francesco

8) Marta Kostyuk (New)

Actual Ranking: 11
2026 Record: 32-8
Notable Recent Result: WTA 1000 Cincinnati QF
Best US Open Result: Fourth Round (2025)

When a fourth-round loss to Iga Swiatek and a quarter-final loss to Coco Gauff are a "slump," that just shows how great a year Kostyuk is having. The Ukrainian was one of the best players in the world on the natural surfaces, reaching the semifinals or better at every event she played. The Pole snapped that semifinal streak at four straight events overall in Toronto.

Kostyuk already has a 1000 title to her name this year (Madrid) and looks to be knocking on the door of bigger things. She was the only player on the WTA Tour to reach the semifinals of both Roland-Garros and Wimbledon and is only losing to the best of the best right now. All but one of her losses this year have been against either a Top 10 opponent or the eventual tournament champion.

- Pete

9) Amanda Anisimova (+1)

Actual Ranking: 10
2026 Record: 20-11
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati QF
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2025)

Anisimova has shown glimmers of last year’s career-best form. The American’s strongest performances were in Cincinnati as she defeated the surging Alexandra Eala from a set down in round three, before comfortably beating Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova to reach the quarter-finals. The 24-year-old then went the distance against Jessica Pegula but narrowly lost out in a third-set tiebreaker.

Now, as Anisimova returns to Flushing Meadows, will the memories of last year begin to roll in? The New Jerseyan made a second-consecutive major final with her 2025 US Open run, defeating world No. 2 Iga Swiatek and two-time champion Naomi Osaka along the way. If New York creates that spark once again, Anisimova may be back in Grand Slam title contention.

- Francesco

10) Elina Svitolina (-1)

Actual Ranking: 9
2026 Record: 41-21
Notable Recent Result: WTA 1000 Toronto SF
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2019)

There are some injury questions surrounding Svitolina heading into the US Open, but she competed in the mixed doubles this week so it seems like she will be good to go for singles.

Svitolina has been very solid throughout 2026, scoring his first WTA 1000 title in years on clay in Rome and coming within three holds of reaching the final in Toronto. It took an inspired effort from Swiatek to deny the Ukrainian of a second NBO final. Her aggressive game is well-suited to the quick courts in New York. The Ukrainian has had more success in recent years at the Australian Open than at the US Open, but she has come close before, getting to the semis back in 2019.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Predictions for the 2026 US Open

Champion:

Pete: Coco Gauff
Mel: Coco Gauff
Sarah-Jade: Coco Gauff
Jonathan: Coco Gauff
Pat: Aryna Sabalenka
Francesco: Iga Swiatek
Ravi: Iga Swiatek

Dark Horse:

Pete: Diana Shnaider
Mel: Sarah Bejlek
Sarah-Jade: Sorana Cirstea
Jonathan: Belinda Bencic
Pat: Qinwen Zheng
Francesco: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ravi: Alexandra Eala

Bold Prediction:

Pete: None of the players who have won majors in 2026 reach the quarter-finals.
Mel: Aryna Sabalenka will be upset before the semifinals.
Sarah-Jade: Alexandra Eala will reach the semifinals.
Jonathan: Karolina Muchova returns from injury and makes a deep run to a second straight major final.
Pat: Aryna Sabalenka wins the title without dropping a set.
Francesco: Elena Rybakina will be the world No. 1 after the US Open.
Ravi: Naomi Osaka makes another fashion statement walking onto the court.

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Feature Photo: Martin Sidorjak