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ATP Power Rankings: Sinner Looks to Stay Hot in Indian Wells

by Tennis Canada

March 6, 2024

Is there a player in the world playing better tennis than Jannik Sinner heading into the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells?

The Italian is undefeated in 2024, with his last loss coming at the ATP Finals last November. While the official ATP rankings may not have him on top, that’s why we have Power Rankings.

This week, our panel has a look at who is coming in hottest ahead of Indian Wells and Miami.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the Australian Open)

1. Jannik Sinner (+1)

  • Actual Ranking: 3
  • 2024 Record: 12-0
  • Notable Recent Results: Australian Open Champion, Rotterdam Champion
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Miami Runner-Up (Twice)

No men’s tennis player has been better than Jannik Sinner in 2024 and that’s indisputable.

The Italian is a flawless 12-0 on the season, winning his maiden grand slam to open the year at the Australian Open, then backing it up with a title at the ATP 500 in Rotterdam. Sinner’s huge breakthrough can ultimately be dated back to his performance at the National Bank Open in Toronto last summer, when he won his first-ever Masters 1000.

Between his spellbinding baseline power, improved serve, and strong mental fortitude, he is a prime candidate to win another Masters title at Indian Wells. He reached the semifinals last season, he’s had the upper hand of late against 24-time slam champion Novak Djokovic with wins in three of their last four meetings, and now his game is more polished than ever.

- Ben

2. Novak Djokovic (-1)

  • Actual Ranking: 1
  • 2024 Record: 7-2
  • Notable Recent Results: Australian Open SF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells Champion (Five times) and Miami Champion (Six Times), Four Sunshine Double Sweeps

Novak Djokovic has played a very limited schedule thus far in 2024, with just his semifinal showing at the Aussie Open to show for it. He arrives in Indian Wells as a five-time champion, having hoisted the title there in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

A well-rested Djokovic bodes well during the Sunshine Double and he must surely be considered a huge threat both here and at the Miami Open later this month.

- Mike

3. Daniil Medvedev (+1)

  • Actual Ranking: 4
  • 2024 Record: 9-2
  • Notable Recent Results: Australian Open Runner-Up, Dubai SF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Miami Champion (2023)

There is one particularly unique quality about world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev: He never wins the same title twice.

That would not normally be so noteworthy if he hadn’t racked up 20 titles to this point in his career. Yes, Medvedev has 20 different championship trophies in 20 different cities around the world. He’s a grand slam champion and came awfully close to securing a second major in Australia at the front end of the season.

Read also: This Week In Tennis - California Dreaming

Medvedev is one of the tour’s best movers and counter punchers, with formidable court coverage, but also baseline weaponry. His backhand is as sturdy a shot as you’ll find, and when he’s grooving his serve, he becomes an absolute nightmare to play.

Could he win Indian Wells? Well, of course he could. He has never won it before.

- Ben

4. Alex de Minaur (+3)

  • Actual Ranking: 10
  • 2024 Record: 15-4
  • Notable Recent Results: Acapulco Champion, Rotterdam Runner-Up
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells R4 (Twice)

One of our wishes for 2024 was for Alex de Minaur to make big moves, and it looks like it’s coming true!

Building on his incredible momentum and 15–4 record so far this season, the Australian ace is playing the best tennis of his career. He’s moving so well and isn’t showing any signs of letting up. He’s currently coming off his title defence at the ATP 500 in Acapulco, where he dropped only one set as he dismantled Taro Daniel, Sebastian Ofner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jack Draper and Casper Ruud.

Expect him to be riding high in Indian Wells!


5. Carlos Alcaraz (-2)

  • Actual Ranking: 2
  • 2024 Record: 6-3
  • Notable Recent Results: Buenos Aires SF, Australian Open QF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells (2023) and Miami  (2022) Champion

It has been a slow start to 2024 for the Spanish phenom. Alcaraz has only competed in three tournaments so far this year, with the most recent being of great concern when he was forced to retire early in his first-round match in Rio after spraining his ankle.

However, he was able to recover in time to play an exhibition with Rafael Nadal last weekend and seems ready to go for a stretch of the year where he has historically played well.

- Pete

6. Andrey Rublev (-)

  • Actual Ranking: 5
  • 2024 Record: 14-4
  • Notable Recent Results: Dubai SF, Australian Open QF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells (2022) and Miami (2021) SF

Looking for a sure bet? Then look no further than Andrey Rublev, who’s found his way to the quarters or better of every tournament he’s competed in this season.

Read also: Five Canadians Competing in Indian Wells

He got 2024 off to a fantastic start when he raised the winner’s trophy in Hong Kong. A card-carrying member of the Top 10 since 2020, he’s got a bunch of tricks up his sleeve.

- Abraham

7. Casper Ruud (New)

  • Actual Ranking: 9
  • 2024 Record: 13-3
  • Notable Recent Results: Los Cabos Runner-Up, Acapulco Runner-Up
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Miami Runner-Up (2022)

Ruud is coming into the Sunshine Double with momentum having reached back-to-back finals in Los Cabos and Acapulco. Overall the Norwegian has been quite solid so far in 2024, but has come up just short in the biggest matches.

Indian Wells and Miami have not been the kindest events to Ruud in the past, but the slower hard courts should work well for his game that is at its best on the game’s slowest surface, clay. He will just have to avoid the Aussies, who accounted for his last two losses.

- Pete

8. Taylor Fritz (New)

  • Actual Ranking: 12
  • 2024 Record: 10-3
  • Notable Recent Results: Delray Beach Champion, Australian Open QF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells Champion (2022)

Taylor Fritz returns to the tournament where he truly established himself as one of the best on the ATP Tour. Winning Indian Wells in 2022 still stands as the biggest title of his career.

Fritz won the 250-level event a couple of weeks ago in Delray Beach, a tournament he also captured a year ago, and now stands at an impressive 10-3 on the season.

- Mike

9. Holger Rune (-1)

  • Actual Ranking: 7
  • 2024 Record: 11-5
  • Notable Recent Results: Acapulco SF, Montpellier SF
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Miami R4 (2023)

Holger Rune has everything it takes to win. All he needs to do now is put the puzzle pieces together and stop the game of musical chairs on his team. Back with coach Patrick Mouratoglou for the umpteenth time in the past 12 months, he’ll be out to prove he’s worthy of the winner’s trophy (despite the fact he’s never gotten past the third round in Indian Wells).

Read also: WTA Power Rankings - Seeing Consistency at Sunshine Double

Will his renewed entourage provide him with the support he’s looking for or will he struggle to find his bearings?

- Sarah-Jade

10. Ugo Humbert (New)

  • Actual Ranking: 14
  • 2024 Record: 13-3
  • Notable Recent Results: Dubai Champion, Marseille Champion
  • Best Sunshine Double Results: Indian Wells (2023) and Miami (2021) R3

The season is still young, but Ugo Humbert should definitely be shortlisted for dark horse of 2024. He’s pocketed two titles since January and proven he can take down any player—just ask Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz or Alexander Bublik.

Expect to see some top-level tennis from the world No. 14 these next few weeks.

- Abraham

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

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Feature Photo : Martin Sidorjak