WTA Power Rankings: A New York Breakthrough on…

The final Grand Slam of the year has so many fascinating plotlines shaping up in New York.

There is a defending champion in search of form, a local favourite who seems primed to finally break through, an in-form star who loves this surface...

And of course, the world No. 1 who won this title two years ago.

It feels like anything could happen at the 2024 US Open. The National Bank Open Power Rankings set the stage for the last major of the season.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the National Bank Open. Players who withdrew prior to the NBO may not have been included in the last edition of the Power Rankings)

1. Aryna Sabalenka (+1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 39-11
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati Champion
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2023)

Two-time Australian Open champion Sabalenka will go into New York with a full head of steam, fresh off a WTA 1000 crown in Cincinnati where she toppled world no. 1 Iga Swiatek in straight sets in the semis and then ousted the red-hot Jessica Pegula in the final.

It’s a stunningly quick turnaround for the world No. 2, who was plagued by a shoulder injury that kept her out of both Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics. A healthy Sabalenka is a force to be reckoned with, particularly on a hard court.

- Ben

2. Iga Swiatek (-1)

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 50-6
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati SF
Best US Open Result: Champion (2022)

The world No. 1’s summer did not exactly go to plan, but by the standards of most players it was very successful. She played two events, reaching the semifinals of both, making her one of two players to reach at least the semifinals at two out of the three big events between Wimbledon and the US Open (the other being Jessica Pegula).

While she has not reached a final since Roland-Garros, her recent semifinal run in Cincinnati sets up her well for a run in New York, where she won the title in 2022.

- Pete

3. Jessica Pegula (+5)

Actual Ranking: 6
2024 Record: 29-10
Notable Recent Results: Toronto Champion
Best US Open Result: Quarter-final (2022)

In terms of match wins, the only player to win more at the big events this summer than the world No. 1 is Pegula, who had a chance to become the first woman to win the Canada-Cincinnati double since the latter became a WTA 1000 event in 2009 by winning in Toronto and reaching the final in Ohio, only to be denied by Sabalenka.

The American is finding ways to win right now and is in brilliant form after a largely challenging 2024. She should be full of confidence heading into her home major.

- Pete

4. Qinwen Zheng (+3)

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 25-13
Notable Recent Results: Olympic Gold Medal
Best US Open Result: Quarter-final (2023)

Zheng’s breakthrough 2024 campaign went up another notch this summer as the 21-year-old won her biggest title to date, a gold medal at the Olympics in Paris. That included a shocking semifinal victory over the overwhelming favourite Swiatek.

While that result was on clay and she was upset in the third round of Cincinnati, the Chinese has already proven she can bring it at the big events on hard court, having reached her maiden major final earlier this year at the Australian Open.

- Pete

5. Coco Gauff (-2)

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 36-13
Notable Recent Results: Toronto R3
Best US Open Result: Champion (2023)

Last summer was the true breakout party for Gauff, who enjoyed the best two-month stretch of her career, winning titles in Washington and Cincinnati before a phenomenal run to her maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open.

This summer, she fell in the round of 16 at the Paris Olympics and struggled in both Toronto and Cincinnati, managing just one win across three matches as unforced errors continually crept into her game.

There is still time to get it right – Gauff has the skillset, patience, and determination to fight herself back to the top.

- Ben

6. Elena Rybakina (-2)

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 40-9
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati R2
Best US Open Result: Third round (twice)

It is a little tough to know what to make of Rybakina right now. There is no question that when she is healthy and on her game, she is one of the best players on tour, especially on faster surfaces like hard courts.

But it seems like it’s been a while since she was both healthy and in-form. She missed the Olympics and Toronto before suffering a shocking loss from double match point up on her serve in Cincinnati against Leylah Annie Fernandez.

If peak Rybakina shows up in New York, she will be among the title favourites.

- Pete

7. Emma Navarro (New)

Actual Ranking: 13
2024 Record: 43-18
Notable Recent Results: Toronto Semifinal
Best US Open Result: Round one (twice)

It’s been a career year for American Emma Navarro and she heads into her home slam in excellent form.

The 23-year-old had her best major result at Wimbledon on the grass courts, knocking out stars like Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff en route to the quarter-finals. She also showcased some of her best tennis at the National Bank Open in Toronto, reaching her first-ever WTA 1000 semifinal.

Navarro is a terrific athlete, with great baseline control from the back of the court, and elite counterpunching skills.

- Ben

8. Jasmine Paolini (-3)

Actual Ranking: 5
2024 Record: 31-14
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati R3
Best US Open Result: R2 (2021)

This time last season, Paolini was on the cusp of the Top 30 in the WTA rankings but had never been past the second round of a major and had just one career title at the 250 level.

Fast forward to the summer of 2024, and the Italian is a two-time major finalist, a WTA 1000 champion in Dubai, an Olympic gold medalist in doubles, and the world No. 5. The 28-year-old is the first player since Serena Williams to reach the finals of the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year.

- Ben

9. Liudmila Samsonova (New)

Actual Ranking: 16
2024 Record: 23-19
Notable Recent Results: Toronto and Cincinnati QF
Best US Open Result: R4 (2022)

Samsonova was one of three players, the others being Sabalenka and Pegula, to make at least the quarter-finals at both WTA 1000 events on hard court this summer. She is also not long removed from a title on grass back in June.

Her big-hitting is well-suited to fast courts. Samsonova also has the ability to mix up her game which will make her a threat in the challenging New York conditions.

- Pete

10. Mirra Andreeva (New)

Actual Ranking: 21
2024 Record: 25-11
Notable Recent Results: Iasi Champion
Best US Open Result: R2 (2023)

The 17-year-old is already earning a reputation as a player who can bring it at the big events. As wild as it might sound, her first-round loss at Wimbledon was her first Grand Slam opening-round loss. She had won at least a match in her first six majors, including a semifinal at Roland-Garros this year.

Andreeva will arrive in New York fresh off an impressive performance in Cincinnati where she nearly took out the world No. 1 Swiatek in the quarter-finals, taking the opening set before eventually falling 7-5 in the third.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Content Editor, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ben Lewis – Host, Match Point Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Mike McIntyre – Host, Match Point Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

US Open 2024 Predictions

Champion:

Pete; Aryna Sabalenka
Ben: Aryna Sabalenka
Mel: Aryna Sabalenka
Pat: Aryna Sabalenka
Eddie: Aryna Sabalenka

Dark Horse:

Pete: Diana Shnaider
Mel: Diana Shnaider
Pat: Amanda Anisimova
Eddie: Diana Shnaider

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Two Americans will reach the semifinals
Ben: Paula Badosa has her best run at a Grand Slam this year
Mel: Jessica Pegula will break the QF curse and reach her first Grand Slam semifinal
Pat: Sabalenka will not drop a set.
Eddie: Sabalenka only drops one set

Feature Photo: Peter Power