ATP Power Rankings: Who Will Fill the King’s…

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For a decade and a half, the clay-court season was dominated by one man. For the first time in over 20 years, he will not be participating in the spring dirt events having retired last fall.

Even before Rafael Nadal called it a career, the clay swing on the ATP Tour had being seeing more parity. The three clay Masters 1000 events have each had a different champion in every season since 2019.

Guess who the last one to win two out of three was back in 2018.... anyway.

Given the depth of field on the ATP Tour right now and the ups-and-downs for the established stars, it feels a bit like anything could happen over the coming weeks. The National Bank Open power rankings will try to tee things up.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the Indian Wells.)

1) Carlos Alcaraz (-)

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 15-4
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Semifinal
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid (Twice) and Roland-Garros (2024) Champion

By Alcaraz standards, the Spaniard has had a somewhat quiet start to the year. He did pick up a title indoors in Rotterdam back in February, but he was shut out at the Sunshine Double for the first time since 2021.

Interestingly, Alcaraz has participated much at the clay 1000 events. He has only played Monte-Carlo and Rome once each, putting up a combined 1-2 record at the two events. He has never won a match at the former. However, he has won Madrid twice and of course is the reigning Roland-Garros champion.

While the ATP field is more open than it has been in decades, Alcaraz feels like the safest bet.

2) Novak Djokovic (+1)

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 12-5
Notable Recent Results: Miami Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (Twice), Madrid (Three Times), Rome (Six Times), and Roland-Garros (Three Times) Champion

Djokovic being considered a favourite at any tournament really needs no explanation.

2025 has not been kind to the most successful player in the ATP’s history but Miami looked to be a turning point as he reached his first final of the season. Unfortunately, an eye infection may have played a role in denying him his 100th career tour-level title.

Assuming he can carry the Miami form onto the clay, Djokovic can beat anyone on any day. He has not won a Masters 1000 on the dirt since 2022 but his lone title in 2024 was a clay-court victory on Court Philippe-Chatrier at the Olympics.

3) Alexander Zverev (-1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 14-6
Notable Recent Results: Miami Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid (Twice) and Rome (Twice) Champion

Zverev will likely be leaving the Sunshine Double frustrated with missing a golden opportunity to reel in Jannik Sinner and the No. 1 ranking. The Italian was dropping 1400 points but Zverev only mustered two match wins at the two 1000 events, actually losing points rather than making a charge for No. 1.

He still has a decent chance to make up ground early in the clay swing as he only has a third-round in Monte-Carlo and a fourth-round in Madrid to defend, while Sinner cannot gain anything until at least Rome. Zverev had some of his best results last year on clay, winning in Rome and reaching the Roland-Garros final.

4) Casper Ruud (+6)

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 12-4
Notable Recent Results: Miami Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2024) and Roland-Garros (Twice) Runner-Up

While it may be an unfair oversimplification, Ruud might be the closest thing to a clay-court specialist currently in the Top 10 of the ATP rankings. He has certainly had success on other surfaces, but there is no doubt he is at his best on the dirt. The Norwegian has reached the semifinals or better at all three Masters 1000 events on clay and is one of four men in the last 10 years (along with Nadal, Djokovic, and Dominic Thiem) to reach multiple Roland-Garros finals.

The surface switch comes at a good time for Ruud, as he struggled at the Sunshine double. He only went 2-2 in Indian Wells and Miami, with both wins coming at the latter. The Norwegian has won at least one clay title every year since 2020.

5) Jannik Sinner (New)

Actual Ranking: 1
2025 Record: 7-0
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo Semifinals (Twice)

The big question on the minds of most tennis fans: what can we expect from Jannik Sinner upon his return from suspension?

Sinner is expected to be back at his home Masters 1000 event in Rome in May. He has not played a sanctioned tennis match since defeating Zverev in the Australian Open final in January. The year’s first major is the only tournament the world No. 1 has played this season.

Will there be rust? Will the home crowd in Rome give him a boost? Sinner is no slouch on clay but he is hardly a master either. He has never reached the final of a big clay event, although he does have a 250 title from 2022, beating Alcaraz in Umag, and led the eventual-champion Spaniard two sets to one in their Roland-Garros semifinal last year.

6) Stefanos Tsitsipas (-1)

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 11-6
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo Champion (Three Times)

If there is one player on the ATP Tour who particularly loves one specific venue, it is Tsitsipas and the Monte Carlo Country Club. The Greek is the defending champion and has won three of the last four titles on the French Riviera. Something about the Mediterranean Sea air works for him.

The return to clay will be welcome for Tsitsipas, who was not able to ride his win in Dubai to success at the Sunshine Double. Over the last few years, the Greek has been one of the most consistent clay-courters on tour, having reached at least the final of all four big clay events.

7) Holger Rune (New)

Actual Ranking: 12
2025 Record: 11-8
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo and Rome Runner-Up (2023)

Rune is already off to a better start in 2025 than last year. After reaching a pair of Masters 1000 finals in 2023, the young Dane failed to reach a title match at that level in 2024. In Indian Wells, he had his best run since Rome two years ago, taking out Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev on his way to the final.

In 2023, Rune was a force on clay, reaching two of the three Masters 1000 finals as well as the Roland-Garros quarters. Two of his four career titles were on clay. If the 21-year-old is locked in, he can do a lot of damage over the coming months.

8) Taylor Fritz (-2)

Actual Ranking: 4
2025 Record: 14-6
Notable Recent Results: Miami Semifinal
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2023) and Madrid (2024) Semifinals

Fritz had the unfortunate luck of losing to the eventual champion in both legs of the Sunshine Double. He lost in round four of Indian Wells to Jack Draper and dropped a thriller to Jakub Mensik in the semifinals of Miami.

Generally in the 21st century, American men have struggled on clay. Only one American man has even reached the final of, let alone won, a 1000 or major since 2000. That was Andre Agassi, who lifted the trophy in Rome in 2002. Fritz has come close through with a couple of semifinal runs in recent years. He has a good all-court game and could take advantage if the draw opens up.

9) Andrey Rublev (-5)

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 9-7
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells and Miami R2
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2023) and Madrid (2024) Champion

Like Tsitsipas, Rublev seems to save his best results for the clay 1000 events, although his have not been exclusive to one venue. Rublev has reached the final at five different Masters 1000 events but all of his wins came on clay. He has won at least one clay 1000 event each of the last two years.

Rublev desperately needs the clay to provide a reset. After winning his title in Doha, he has lost his opening match at three consecutive events, including both legs of the Sunshine Double. Keep in mind last year he arrived in Madrid on a four-match losing streak and proceeded to win the title. Rublev can turn it around on a dime.

10) Jack Draper (New)

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 13-3
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Champion
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid and Rome Second Round (2024)

Draper should be arriving on clay full of confidence after winning his first Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells. He took down a murderer’s row of opponents in that title run including Joao Fonseca, Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alcaraz, and Rune, with only Alcaraz able to steal a set. Even Draper’s subsequent opening-match loss in Miami is forgivable as he was beaten by the eventual champion Mensik.

The thing is, to put it mildly, Draper does not have a good record on clay. He also does not have much experience, having not played any of the big events more than twice. But he has a combined 4-7 record at the three 1000s and Roland-Garros and has never made it past the second round of any of them.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Jannik Sinner arrives at Roland-Garros without a match win since the Australian Open
Jonathan: Sinner returns from his suspension and wins one of the two events (Rome or Hamburg) he plays in ahead of Roland-Garros.
Pat: Joao Fonseca will enter the Top 20 ahead of Roland-Garros
Ravi: Daniil Medvedev will win a clay court title
Charlotte: Jakub Mensik reaches another big final.

The ATP's best return to Toronto this summer for the National Bank Open presented by Rogers July 27 to Aug. 7, 2025 at Sobeys Stadium. 2025 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!

Feature Photo: Corinne Dubreuil//ATP Tour