ATP Power Rankings: Door Open at the Sunshine… National Bank Open

For the first time since the Australian Open, the ATP Tour’s best are all together again at the same event.

Well, mostly.

The hard-court events in 2024 were mostly dominated by one man and he will not be in Indian Wells or Miami over the next month, meaning the rest of the tour have a chance to score some big wins in the American sun.

So who do we think will take advantage of the opportunity? The National Bank Open Power Rankings breaks down the field at the Sunshine Double.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the Australian Open.)

1) Carlos Alcaraz (+1)

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 11-2
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Rotterdam Champion
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells (Twice) and Miami (2022) Champion

While Jannik Sinner was the king of the hard courts in 2024, Indian Wells was where his biggest rival got the better of him. Carlos Alcaraz won their semifinal clash in Tennis Paradise a year ago and went on to successfully defend his title. The Spaniard has a great record in Indian Wells, having reached at least the semifinals in three straight years and, of course, winning the last two titles.

It is worth noting though that the surface has changed this year in the desert and is reportedly playing faster. That being said, it is more similar to the surface used in Miami, which Alcaraz also won in 2022. The Spaniard, a two-time Wimbledon champion, does enjoy fast courts too. He just won his first indoor title in February, after all.

2) Alexander Zverev (+1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 12-4
Notable Recent Results: Australian Open Runner-Up
Best Sunshine Double Result: Miami Runner-Up (2018)

Alexander Zverev is the top seed this week in Indian Wells and, assuming he plays, will be in Miami too. The German has had a bit of an odd run up to the Sunshine Double, electing to play most of February on clay in South America. He lost in the second round of his one warm-up hard-court event in Acapulco, although he reportedly was one of many players at that event suffering from food poisoning.

Considering his generally strong performances on hard courts throughout his career, the Sunshine Double has been trickier for Zverev. He reached the Miami final in 2018 but has not been back and has never even reached the semis in Indian Wells.

3) Novak Djokovic (+1)

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 7-3
Notable Recent Results: Australian Open SF
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells (five times) and Miami (six times) Champion

Novak Djokovic has finally started to show his age in 2025 but, as always, doubt him at your own peril. He still made the semifinals of the Australian Open before pulling out with an injury, although he also has not won a match since Melbourne. His lone appearance in between was a first-round loss in Doha.

On the one hand, Djokovic is the most successful player at these two 1000 events in the 21st century but also has not won either since he completed his third Sunshine Double sweep in a row in 2016. In fact, he has not even been past the fourth round over that span, although he has only made one appearance at either event since 2019 (a third-round loss in Indian Wells last year).

4) Andrey Rublev (+6)

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 9-5
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Doha Champion
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells (2022) and Miami (2021) SF

Andrey Rublev has had a pretty good run since his first-round loss at the Australian Open, reaching the quarter-finals or better at three of four events including a title in Doha where he battled through a tough draw that included Alexander Bublik, Nuno Borges, Alex de Minaur, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Jack Draper.

While his best Masters 1000 results have been on clay, he has been no slouch on the hard courts either, having reached three finals in the latter half of the season. Success at the Sunshine Double has eluded him but with the right draw, the tenacious Rublev is not someone any opponent will want to face.

5) Stefanos Tsitsipas (New)

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 8-4
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Dubai Champion
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells and Miami QF (2021)

One of the stranger streaks in the men’s game was finally snapped last month. Despite being a multi-Masters 1000 champion and two-time Grand Slam runner-up, Stefanos Tsitsipas needed 12 tries to win an ATP 500 final. He did so with a win in Dubai at the end of February.

Now he will hope to finally have a breakthrough at the Sunshine Double. Tsitsipas has reached the semifinals or better at every other Masters 1000 event on the calendar but has never been past the quarter-finals of either Indian Wells or Miami. If he’s in a mood for breaking droughts, 2025 could be the year.

6) Taylor Fritz (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2025 Record: 8-4
Notable Recent Results: ATP 250 Delray Beach QF
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells Champion (2022)

After helping the United States to the United Cup title to start the season, Taylor Fritz has struggled to string together wins. Six of his eight victories came in a row in January and he has not won back-to-back matches since the Australian Open.

But Fritz knows how to win in the desert. He claimed the biggest title of his career in Indian Wells back in 2022 (on a severely injured ankle no less). The BNP Paribas Open is also the only “big” tournament (Masters 1000 or Grand Slam) where the American No. 1 has reached at least the quarter-finals three times.

7) Félix Auger-Aliassime (New)

Actual Ranking: 18
2025 Record: 16-5
Notable Recent Results: ATP 250 Montpellier Champion
Best Sunshine Double Result: Miami SF (2019)

Félix Auger-Aliassime leads the ATP Tour in match wins (16), titles (two), and finals (three) so far in 2025. He has reached the quarter-finals or better at four of his six regular tour events, with one of the two early losses being a retirement. He also had a Top 5 win over Fritz at the United Cup.

That’s a long way of saying Auger-Aliassime has had a phenomenal start to 2025.

Now he just needs to prove he can get the job done with the biggest names in the game in the draw. The Australian Open was his lone real flop so far this year when he lost from two sets up in the second round. But apart from that, he has done a great job of finding ways to win. The Montrealer has an impressive 10-2 record in three-set matches this season.

8) Daniil Medvedev (-2)

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 8-5
Notable Recent Results: ATP 250 Marseille SF
Best Sunshine Double Result: Miami Champion (2023)

Is this the year Daniil Medvedev finally solves Indian Wells? He certainly will like his chances if he can avoid Alcaraz, who beat him in the last two finals in Tennis Paradise.

If there is one player more than any other who should like the surface change in the desert, it’s Medvedev, who has famously criticized the court surface in the past. Although not that it stopped him from reaching a pair of finals. But if Indian Wells does play more like Miami, the self-proclaimed “hard-court specialist” should be happy since he won on that surface two years ago.

Medvedev has been one of the best players in the world on hard courts over the last five-plus years but has struggled to find his feet so far in 2025. Maybe some time in the sun is just what the former US Open champion needs.

9) Alex de Minaur (-2)

Actual Ranking: 10
2025 Record: 13-4
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Rotterdam Runner-Up
Best Sunshine Double Result: Indian Wells (three times) and Miami (2024) SF

The Demon has settled in to being a very consistent player in the Top 10 over the last year or so. So far in 2025, he has reached the quarter-finals or better at three out of four regular tour events he has played, including on home soil at the Australian Open and a finals run in Rotterdam where he pushed Alcaraz to three sets.

Read also: Indian Wells is a "Cool" Place

De Minaur has not had a ton of success at the Masters 1000 level in his career, apart from his finals run in Toronto in 2023. He actually has more Grand Slam quarter-finals on his record than Masters 1000s. But if we know one thing about the Aussie, it’s that he is going to chase down every single ball. And in the southern US heat, or at least in the Miami humidity since temperatures are quite cool in Indian Wells this year, his fitness should serve him well.

10) Casper Ruud (-1)

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 10-2
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Dallas Runner-Up
Best Sunshine Double Result: Miami Runner-Up (2022)

Apart from his disappointing result at the Australian Open, Casper Ruud has been fairly solid so far in 2025 when he has played. Djokovic is the only player on this list with fewer matches on his record than the Norwegian, although part of that is Ruud’s choice to represent his country whenever possible. He played both United Cup and Davis Cup, which limited the number of matches he could play. But he also won all four of them.

His three tour results have been a bit odd: a second-round loss in Melbourne followed by a runner-up finish in Dallas (where he lost to the red-hot Denis Shapovalov), only to get sick and pull out in Acapulco.

While his best Masters 1000 results have mostly been on clay, he did get to the last sixteen at both Indian Wells and Miami last year and reached his first Masters 1000 final on any surface in Miami back in 2022. So don’t write him off just because the surface over the next month is solid.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Bold Prediction for the Sunshine Double:

Pete: Despite the apparently speedier court surface in Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev will voice his frustration with it.
Mel: Alex de Minaur will reach his first Masters 1000 final since Toronto in 2023 during the Sunshine Double.
Jonathan: Unimpeded by bees, Carlos Alcaraz goes back-to-back to win both legs of the Sunshine Double
Eddie: Joao Fonseca’s debut in the sunshine doubles will result in a QF appearance at both tournaments.
Pat: Ben Shelton not only reaches his first 1000 semis, but will win his maiden Masters title.
Ravi: Carlos Alcaraz repeats at Indian Wells

The ATP's best return to Toronto this summer for the National Bank Open presented by Rogers July 27 to Aug. 7, 2025 at Sobeys Stadium. 2025 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!

Feature Photo: Antoine Couvercelle/FFT