ATP Finals Singles Round-Robin Preview: Debutants Look to Shine in Turin

Stefanos Tsitsipas was the last debutant to hoist the trophy at the year-end championships back in 2019, but will a member of this year’s quartet join the former world No. 3 in the history books? 

The tournament will also have a new titlist after Jannik Sinner, the two-time reigning champion, announced he would miss the event due to an injury. However, before the title thoughts, the eight players must first get through round-robin play and finish in the top two of their group to advance to the semifinals.

Here’s a look at each group and predictions on who will reach the final four.

John McEnroe Group – Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar

For the first time in his career, Alexander Zverev enters the ATP Finals as the world No. 1. The German is by far the most-experienced player in the group, making his ninth appearance at the season-ending tournament. The 29-year-old also knows what it takes to win the competition, having hoisted the trophy twice, with his most recent triumph coming in Turin five years ago.

Zverev holds a very convincing combined record of 12-2 against the group and is undefeated in six meetings against the next highest-ranked player in the quartet, world No. 4 Ben Shelton.

Assuming the world No. 1 tops the group, then the second spot is virtually a toss-up.

Shelton’s runner-up finish in Paris is a promising result ahead of the ATP Finals. Félix Auger-Aliassime was last year’s finalist in the French capital and, just weeks later, came out of the group in Turin, which featured Sinner, Zverev, and Shelton.

However, debutants Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar are both tough customers on the surface. 

Fils’ power can take over any match, especially under the roof of Inalpi Arena, and that rang true during his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title run in Cincinnati earlier in the year. The French No. 1 can set the tone with a win over Shelton in his opening match, but Fils is 0-2 against the American No. 1 on indoor hard courts.

Read also: Elena Rybakina’s Road to WTA World No. 1

As for Jodar, he will be most familiar with Fils, having played the Frenchman three times this season. The Spaniard won their two most recent encounters, both on the concrete, and is also in slightly better form after reaching his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai last month. The 20-year-old has never battled Shelton and only met Zverev once, which was in this year’s Roland-Garros quarters.

John McEnroe Group Predictions:

1. Alexander Zverev
2. Ben Shelton
3. Rafael Jodar
4. Arthur Fils

Ivan Lendl Group – Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe

Carlos Alcaraz may be the clear favourite to win the group, and possibly the whole tournament. The seven-time Grand Slam champion has been in peak form following the US Open, losing just one of his 18 matches. That span included titles in Tokyo, Vienna, and Paris.

At two of the last three ATP Finals, the winner of the Paris Masters has gone on to win the year-end championships, one of the few “Big” titles that are missing from Alcaraz’s checklist. The world No. 3 was a runner-up in 2025 and will be poised to reach the final for the second-straight year.

Daniil Medvedev will arguably be Alcaraz’s biggest test of the round robin. The 2020 ATP Finals champion split the two meetings with the Spaniard this season, beating Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinals. Medvedev has also been in solid form over the past two months, reaching at least the semis in five of his last six events, including title runs in Hangzhou and Almaty.

However, despite Medvedev having a winning record against both Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe, the two debutants have each gotten the better of the former world No. 1 as of late.

Tiafoe won two of their last three encounters, with the American taking their most recent match in straight sets at this year’s US Open.

While Cobolli lost his only two meetings against Medvedev on the concrete, those matches came in 2024, and a lot changed for the 24-year-old since then. The Italian secured his maiden hard-court title in Acapulco, beating Tiafoe in the final, and defeated Medvedev for the first time in Madrid this season. Cobolli also reached a career-high of No. 6 in the ATP rankings.

Read also: This Week in Tennis - Alcaraz Reaches Peak Form Ahead of ATP Finals

Tiafoe has had Cobolli’s number recently, though, beating the 24-year-old twice in straight sets following the Acapulco final. However, the Florence-native, who will serve as the Italian No. 1 due to Sinner’s absence, doesn’t disappoint on home soil, as seen from his heroics at the 2025 Davis Cup Finals in Bologna.

Ivan Lendl Group Predictions:

1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Flavio Cobolli
3. Daniil Medvedev 
4. Frances Tiafoe

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Feature Photo: Mathieu Belanger