ATP Power Rankings: Can Anyone Stop a…

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Only once in tennis history did the same two men meet in four consecutive Grand Slam finals. That was a little over a decade ago, when Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal clashed in four straight from the 2011 Wimbledon final to the 2012 Roland-Garros title match.

14 years later, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have a chance to repeat the feat at the upcoming Australian Open.

But 126 other men in the draw may have something to say about that. While the “New Two” appear to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the ATP Tour at the moment, anything can happen in tennis. After all, the Australian Open is the only major where we have yet to have a Sinnercaraz matchup. And it’s by no means a sure thing that they will meet. After all, Nadal and Roger Federer never played at the US Open.

So who is most likely to be lifting the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Feb. 1? The National Bank Open Power Rankings size up the contenders, including players not named Sinner and Alcaraz.

1) Jannik Sinner

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 58-6
Best Australian Open Result: Champion (Twice)

There is a lot on the line for Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open over the coming weeks.

Having joined the exclusive club of players to have reached all four Grand Slam singles final in the same season last year, the Italian is looking to stretch his streak to six consecutive major finals dating back to the 2024 US Open. He is the two-time defending Aussie Open champion and another title would make him just the second man in the Open Era, along with Novak Djokovic, to three-peat in Melbourne.

But there is also his rivalry with Alcaraz to consider. Sinner will be looking to deny the Spaniard of a career Grand Slam. Also, his 2000 champion points are critical to hold onto in their battle for No. 1.

Sinner should be confident at the venue he has dominated the last few years, especially given his form in the final months of 2025. He finished the year on a 15-match winning streak, including a victory over Alcaraz in the title match at the ATP Finals, and went 39-3 from Wimbledon through the ATP Finals, with two of his three losses being retirements (the lone completed-match loss was the US Open final against Alcaraz).

- Pete

2) Carlos Alcaraz

Actual Ranking: 1
2025 Record: 71-9
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-Final (Twice)

"I would rather win my first Australian Open than retain my French Open and US Open titles next year," Carlos Alcaraz told reporters in November. It sounds like the ultimate goal for 2026 is clear for the six-time major winner – to complete the Career Slam at the Australian Open. If he finally gets his hands on silverware in Melbourne, Alcaraz will become the youngest man to manage the feat and sixth to do so in the Open Era.

However, things have not come easy for the 22-year-old Down Under. Alcaraz was ousted in the quarter-finals the last two years but, with Samuel Lopez now at the helm, the head coaching refresh could be the boost that takes the Spaniard past the last eight.

Alcaraz did beat Sinner in an exhibition match in Seoul to begin the year, and he and his team will hope the same translates to Aussie Open play if the two rivals were to meet in a fourth-straight major final.

- Francesco

3) Novak Djokovic

Actual Ranking: 4
2025 Record: 39-11
Best Australian Open Result: Champion (Ten times)

You can almost look at “Best Australian Open Result” above and understand why Novak Djokovic is so high on the Power Rankings. Even at 38-years-old, it’s hard not to justify the most successful man in the tournament’s history as the closest competitor to Sinner and Alcaraz heading into Melbourne.

The former world No. 1 has made back-to-back Aussie Open semifinals and was unlucky not to reach the title match in 2025, taking down Alcaraz in the quarter-finals but retiring after a tight opening-set tiebreak against Alexander Zverev in the final four.

Djokovic ended last season with his 101st ATP title in Athens, where he rolled back the years with an incredible half-volley – truly at full-stretch – in the final against Lorenzo Musetti. The Serb has yet to play this year after withdrawing from Adelaide, but the added rest may prove beneficial as Djokovic’s focus remains on hoisting that record 25th Grand Slam trophy.

- Francesco

4) Félix Auger-Aliassime

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 50-24
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-Final (2022)

Is this the year when Auger-Aliassime can translate his strong end-of-year indoor form into a deep run in Australia?

Over the last few years, the Montrealer has been one of the best players in the world indoors and as a result, tends to play his best tennis at the end of the year. In 2025, he took that to another level. He was arguably the third-best player in the world, behind the New Two, from Cincinnati onwards, reaching the quarter-finals or better of every event he played, including a US Open semifinal, Paris final, Brussels title, and ATP Finals semifinal, finishing the year at a career-high of No. 5 in the world.

Down the stretch, Auger-Aliassime found a new level of consistency in his game but the big difference-maker seemed to be his confidence and mental toughness. The Canadian was not beating himself it took big efforts, mainly from Sinner and Alcaraz, to stop him. If he can carry that confidence into Melbourne, this could be the moment the Canadian finally steals the spotlight.

- Pete

5) Alexander Zverev

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 57-25
Best Australian Open Result: Runner-Up (2025)

Zverev has, when healthy, arguably been the most consistent player on the ATP Tour since his breakthrough in 2017. And yet, despite reaching three major finals including last year at the Australian Open, he still does not have a Grand Slam title to show for it.

The world No. 3 is probably one of the safest bets to reach the late rounds in Melbourne. All he does is win matches consistently, especially on hard courts. But he probably needs to avoid Sinner to have a hope of finally scoring that elusive major. The Italian has won five straight meetings, including last year’s Australian Open final in straight sets, dating back to the 2023 US Open. However, Zverev is 6-6 in his head-to-head with Alcaraz, including a four-set win at this very venue back in 2024.

- Pete

6) Lorenzo Musetti

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 45-22
Best Australian Open Result: 3R (2025)

Musetti enters this year’s Australian Open in good form, with hopes of reaching the second week for the first time. After ending 2025 with a runner-up result in Athens and a respectable 1-2 outing at the ATP Finals, the Italian began this year with a final in Hong Kong, defeating Andrey Rublev from a set down to reach the title match.

The Hong Kong finalist run was enough for Musetti to crack the Top 5 as the 23-year-old seems to be peaking at the right time with the Aussie Open around the corner.

- Francesco

7) Alex de Minaur

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 56-24
Best Australian Open Result: QF (2025)

De Minaur enters his home Slam with even more expectation to go on a deep run. The world No. 6 is the highest he has ever been ranked heading into the Australian Open and earned his best result in Melbourne last year, losing out to eventual champion Sinner in the quarter-finals.

The United Cup may have been a sneak peek into how spirited the Australian fans might be when their home favourite hits the court. De Minaur looked to feed off that crowd, especially in his comfortable win over world No. 18 Jakub Mensik.

However, whether at home or not, the 26-year-old’s strengths lie on the concrete. Since Wimbledon, de Minaur has reached at least the quarter-finals of every hard-court event he played, with his most notable results being the Washington title and US Open quarters.

- Francesco

8) Daniil Medvedev

Actual Ranking: 12
2025 Record: 41-23
Best Australian Open Result: Runner-Up (Three Times)

It looks like Medvedev might be back. After going titleless for over two years (June 2023 to October 2025), the former world No. 1 has won two of his last four tournaments, including a season-opening victory last week in Brisbane.

The Australian Open has been a house of heartbreak for Medvedev over the years despite his incredibly consistent results. He has reached three finals this decade in Melbourne but lost them all, including two devastating defeats from two-sets-to-love up.

On the bright side, losing all those finals in Melbourne means that the Australian Open is still very much winnable for a guy who has never won the same event twice despite having lifted 22 ATP Tour trophies.

- Pete

9) Ben Shelton

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 40-24
Best Australian Open Result: SF (2025)

Shelton is coming off a career-year in 2025 and, if he brings that form into 2026, he’s bound for another deep run at the Australian Open. The American No. 1 began last year’s Slam season with a trip to the semis in Melbourne, where he lost out to Sinner. The former Florida Gator also looked destined for a similar result at the US Open but was forced to retire prior to the fifth set in his third-round match.

It’s no surprise that hard courts are Shelton’s favourite as he reached at least the quarter-finals in four of the six ATP Masters 1000 events held on the concrete, of course headlined by his maiden 1000 title at the National Bank Open in Toronto.

The 23-year-old kicked off this season with a straight-sets win to reach the quarters in Auckland, his final tuneup event before his big serve takes the courts of Melbourne Park.

- Francesco

10) Taylor Fritz

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 53-23
Best Australian Open Result: Quarter-Final (2024)

After a career-year in 2024 that included runner-up finishes at the US Open and ATP Finals, Fritz was unable build on it last year. He finished 2025 with the exact same record as the previous season, 53-23, which marked three years in a row with nearly identical win-loss ratios (he went 54-23 in 2023). He did reach another major semifinal at Wimbledon but only got past the third round at two of the four majors, having done so at all four the previous year.

Consistency is something to be commended, but at age 28, Fritz needs to take another step in 2026. The American is a very solid ball striker, especially on hard courts, and has the ability to make a deep run on his favourite surface in Melbourne. He needs to prove he can win the big matches though.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

2026 Australian Open Predictions

Champion:

Pete: Jannik Sinner
Mel: Jannik Sinner
Jonathan: Jannik Sinner
Julie: Jannik Sinner
Pat: Jannik Sinner
Francesco: Carlos Alcaraz
Ravi: Jannik Sinner

Dark Horse:

Pete: Tommy Paul
Mel: Hubert Hurkacz
Jonathan: Jakub Mensik
Julie: Hubert Hurkacz
Pat: Hubert Hurkacz
Francesco: Zizou Bergs
Ravi: Flavio Cobolli

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Stan Wawrinka will upset a seed in his final Australian Open appearance.
Mel: Alex de Minaur will make his first career Grand Slam semifinal at his home Slam.
Jonathan: Alexander Bublik dominates and reaches the semis.
Julie: Stefanos Tsitsipas will be back in his winning ways, reaching his first Grand Slam semifinal since the 2023 Australian Open.
Pat: Alex Michelsen will be the last American standing.
Francesco: There will NOT be a Sinnercaraz final.
Ravi: Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios will win the doubles.

The ATP's best return to Montreal next summer for the National Bank Open presented by Rogers Aug 1 to 13 at IGA Stadium. Get your tickets today!

Feature Photo: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour