ATP Power Rankings: Wide Open New York Field…

For the first time in a long time, the men's singles field at a Grand Slam event feels genuinely wide open.

With the world No. 1 absent, the defending champion competing in his first tournament since April, and the game's winningest player seemingly struggling with his fitness, it is hard to identify a favourite at the upcoming US Open.

At the same time, the final Grand Slam event of 2026 feels like the opportunity that so many players who have been stuck behind the "New Two" (and the Big Three before them) have been waiting for.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings size up the contenders at this wide-open US Open.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the National Bank Open.)

1) Alexander Zverev (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2026 Record: 46-13
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati R4
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2020)

Zverev has been the most consistent player at the majors this year and he looks to cap off the Grand Slam season on a high note. The world No. 2 has reached the semifinals or better at every Slam so far, highlighted by his maiden title at Roland-Garros.

At the US Open, there will be another first. It will be the first time that Zverev will be the top seed at a major following Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal.

A Montreal opening-match loss and Cincinnati fourth-round exit hasn’t given the German much of a boost heading into the US Open, but expect the 29-year-old to deliver in the Big Apple. The only recent bump Zverev had at Flushing Meadows was last year, when he failed to reach the second week for the first time since 2018. Prior to 2025, the Hamburg native made the US Open quarters four straight times, including a run to the final in 2020.

- Francesco

2) Carlos Alcaraz (New)

Actual Ranking: 3
2026 Record: 22-3
Notable Recent Result: *Out since April
Best US Open Result: Champion (Twice)

The reigning champion is back.

After dealing with a wrist injury since April, Carlos Alcaraz is ready to return to action just in time for his US Open title defence. The Spaniard will be Zverev’s biggest threat and, assuming he’s back to 100 per cent, the 23-year-old may be hoisting an eighth Grand Slam trophy by the end of the fortnight.

Since Cincinnati last year, Alcaraz had only lost four of 43 hard-court matches prior to his injury – a spell that included two major titles, a Cincinnati trophy, and triumphs in Tokyo and Doha. Of those four losses, only two were against players who will be a part of this year’s US Open field.

Alcaraz is more than capable of quickly finding that level again in New York, which could mean that the US Open may have its first back-to-back champion since Roger Federer’s five straight titles from 2004-2008.

- Francesco

3) Ben Shelton (-)

Actual Ranking: 9
2026 Record: 33-13
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Montreal Champion
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2023)

Shelton joined an exclusive club in August, becoming just the fifth man in the Masters 1000 era (since 1990) to defend the National Bank Open crown, not dropping a set in Montreal to back up his maiden Masters 1000 title won in Toronto last year. The other four men to do it: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Andre Agassi. Pretty illustrious company.

All four of those men also won the US Open at least once in their careers.

Even though he could not keep the good times going in Cincinnati, it was a quick turnaround. Now Shelton will be rested and ready to go at his home major. His last two trips to New York ended in the third round, but the Atlantan reached the semifinals back in 2023.

- Pete

4) Novak Djokovic (New)

Actual Ranking: 5
2026 Record: 14-6
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati R2
Best US Open Result: Champion (Four times)

There seems to be a common theme when talking about Djokovic in these power rankings, but it may be truer than ever for the US Open.

The four-time US Open champion doesn’t need many reps to still be a contender at Flushing Meadows, especially on his favourite surface. Prior to this year’s Australian Open, the 39-year-old hadn't played since the beginning of November and still reached the final in Melbourne.

Djokovic did play in Cincinnati before heading to New York, but succumbed to Thiago Agustin Tirante, and the heat, in his opening match. The world No. 5 was soon back on court for US Open mixed doubles, though.

The 24-time major titlist won’t have to worry about the humidity as much at Flushing Meadows, when he’s presumably placed on a more temperature-controlled Arthur Ashe Stadium, as Djokovic looks to make back-to-back US Open semifinals.

- Francesco

5) Félix Auger-Aliassime (-3)

Actual Ranking: 4
2026 Record: 32-15
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati R4
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (Twice)

The 2025 US Open sparked a renaissance in Auger-Aliassime that saw the Canadian go on arguably the best 12-month stretch of his career so far. But now he faces the daunting task of having to defend all those points, starting with backing up his semifinal run from a year ago.

He is in a bit of a shaky position heading into New York as a back injury forced the Montrealer out of his home event earlier this month. He delivered some solid performances in the early rounds of Cincinnati before getting overwhelmed by Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round.

Auger-Aliassime is going to need to find his pre-summer form in order to back up his 2025 result, although as the No. 3 seed, he will avoid Zverev and Alcaraz until the semis. He also has a large enough cushion between himself and world No. 5 Novak Djokovic that his spot in the Top 5 is relatively secure for the moment.

- Pete

6) Rafael Jodar (New)

Actual Ranking: 13
2026 Record: 36-14
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Montreal SF
Best US Open Result: Debut

New York will get its first look at the surging Jodar. During the 2025 US Open, the Spaniard was ranked outside the Top 350 and was playing in an ATP Challenger in Winston-Salem. Now, the 19-year-old will be seeded at Flushing Meadows.

Jodar shined in his first North American hard-court swing, making the final in Washington and semis at the National Bank Open. The world No. 13 also earned some big wins along the way, defeating both Lorenzo Musetti and soon-to-be Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils twice.

When Jodar is at his clinical best, he can be a top ten seed’s worst nightmare at Flushing Meadows as he looks to be the next Spaniard – and Rafael – to hoist the US Open trophy.

- Francesco

7) Arthur Fils (+3)

Actual Ranking: 11
2026 Record: 32-10
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati Champion
Best US Open Result: Second Round (Twice)

Fils has been sneakily one of the best players in the world in 2026, although it is a lot less sneaky after his victory last week in Cincinnati. The Frenchman has reached the quarter-finals or better at five of the six Masters 1000 events he has played, the semis at three of them.

The reason why many may have been overlooking Fils is that he missed the Australian Open and Roland-Garros with injuries. Now, seemingly healthy and playing great tennis, he has a chance to show what he is truly capable of at the majors.

In a field like this, it is entirely possible that Fils could power through to a maiden major title. At the very least, a first Grand Slam quarter-final seems extremely likely if he can stretch his best-of-three dominance to best-of-five.

- Pete

8) Taylor Fritz (-3)

Actual Ranking: 10
2026 Record: 31-15
Notable Recent Result: ATP 500 Washington Champion
Best US Open Result: Runner-Up (2024)

Fritz really found himself in June after a tough start to the season. He was great on the grass and carried that form over to the North American hard courts, taking the title on home soil in Washington, beating in-form opponents such as Brandon Nakashima and Jodar en route.

The 1000s were a little trickier, but he was still solid on his way to the Cincinnati quarters, where he lost to the red-hot Nakashima. Now he heads to New York perhaps with a little less pressure to end the American drought at the US Open, as that burden is shared with Shelton, Nakashima, Frances Tiafoe, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul. That easing of tensions could do wonders for Fritz.

- Pete

9) Brandon Nakashima (New)

Actual Ranking: 17
2026 Record: 31-17
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Montreal Runner-Up
Best US Open Result: Fourth Round (2024)

What a summer Nakashima has had. The 25-year-old American has been the most consistent player on tour since getting home from Europe, reaching the semifinals or better in Washington, Montreal, and Cincinnati, reaching his maiden Masters 1000 final at the National Bank Open.

He has not done it the easy way, either. His list of vanquished opponents over that stretch includes Alex de Minaur, Jodar, Daniil Medvedev, and Fritz. He will be hoping to carry all that momentum into New York and at minimum a first Grand Slam quarter-final. He may need to avoid his countrymen though, as his losses at all three of those tournaments were against fellow Americans.

- Pete

10) Flavio Cobolli (-4)

Actual Ranking: 6
2026 Record: 31-18
Notable Recent Result: ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati SF
Best US Open Result: Third Round (Twice)

Cobolli’s game continues to impress as he reached new heights once again. The Italian, who will be the nation’s No. 1 at the US Open, had some gritty wins in Cincinnati en route to his first ATP Masters 1000 semifinal.

Cobolli erased a 3-5 deficit in the third set to beat Alexander Blockx in round three, then came back from a set down against Jodar and Tommy Paul to make the final four. The result brought the 24-year-old up to a career-high of No. 6 in the ATP rankings.

Considering this year will only be Cobolli’s third US Open main-draw appearance, the Florence-native is bound for a deep run in New York, seeing how he doesn’t shy away from tight moments.

- Francesco

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Predictions for the 2026 US Open

Champion

Pete: Alexander Zverev
Mel: Alexander Zverev
Sarah-Jade: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Jonathan: Carlos Alcaraz
Francesco: Ben Shelton
Ravi: Ben Shelton

Dark Horse

Pete: Learner Tien
Mel: Frances Tiafoe
Jonathan: Frances Tiafoe
Pat: Jiri Lehecka
Francesco: Frances Tiafoe
Ravi: Lorenzo Musetti

Bold Prediction:

Pete: One of the finalists will be a first-time Grand Slam singles finalist.
Mel and Francesco: At least two Americans will reach the semifinals.
Sarah-Jade: Brandon Nakashima reaches the final.
Jonathan: Learner Tien reaches the semifinals.
Pat: Carlos Alcaraz does not reach the third round.
Ravi: Raphael Collignon will make his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

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Feature Photo: Martin Sidorjak