Digesting Final Sprint in Race to ATP Finals

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The race to the Nitto ATP Finals has entered its final bend. Just three spots have been secured with the event under a month away, and the Asian swing only added to the hectic sprint for the final five places at the year-end championships.

Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz had already punched their tickets to Turin prior to the Rolex Shanghai Masters, while Ben Shelton’s third-round result at the tournament was enough to join the two.

Next in the queue for the ATP Finals is Flavio Cobolli. A Roland-Garros runner-up finish and an Acapulco title gave the Italian some breathing room in the Race to Turin, sitting more than 600-points clear of missing out.

Cobolli hasn’t mathematically clinched a spot in the Top 9 (ninth qualifies for the Finals due to Sinner’s withdrawal) but solid results in Lyon and Vienna could seal things before the Rolex Paris Masters. The Florence-native will be the host nation’s hopeful at the ATP Finals following two-time reigning champion Jannik Sinner’s decision to put an end to his 2026 season.

A little over 100-points behind Cobolli is 2020 ATP Finals titlist Daniil Medvedev, who boosted his qualification chances after Shanghai. The former world No. 1 reached the semis at China’s Masters 1000 event, his third 1000-level semifinal of the season, and overtook Arthur Fils and Frances Tiafoe for sixth in the Race to Turin.

Medvedev now looks to better his odds in Almaty, where he could go nearly 800-points safe if he successfully defends his title. The 30-year-old has already hoisted two trophies this season – ATP 500 Dubai and ATP 250 Hangzhou.

Rafael Jodar made things the most interesting, though. The Spaniard became a serious ATP Finals qualification contender following a trip to his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai, moving up two places and grabbing the final spot away from Alex de Minaur.

Factor in Novak Djokovic too, who remains keen on making his tenth ATP Finals appearance, and just 540 points separate the 11^th-placed Serb from seventh-place Tiafoe. In that case, it will come down to who performs best throughout the European indoor swing.

Fils’ power will be best suited for the indoor hard courts, plus the 22-year-old will be a crowd favourite over the final few events of the year, with stops in France-bordering Belgium and Switzerland prior to the Paris Masters. The French No. 1 has already reached the Brussels quarter-finals following Jaume Munar’s withdrawal, moving just five-points back of Tiafoe for seventh in the Live Race to Turin.

Jodar will be back on court next week in Basel as he looks to build off his career-best Masters 1000 finish. The 20-year-old will need to better or match de Minaur’s result in Vienna to maintain his advantage heading into Paris. If Jodar hangs onto the final spot, he will potentially be one of four ATP Finals debutants along with Cobolli, Tiafoe, and Fils.

However, it’s still almost impossible to count out Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion is roughly 300-points out and can punish early exits from Jodar or de Minaur. The 39-year-old is coming off a Beijing triumph last month and will look for a second-straight ATP 500 title in Basel before the year’s final Masters 1000 event.

Therefore, the race that was once a marathon, now turns into a sprint as strong results become much more crucial to punching a ticket to Turin next month.

Feature Photo: Peter Power/Tennis Canada