WTA Power Rankings: Can Sabalenka Reign on Clay?

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At this point, we all know who the dominant forces are on hard courts on the WTA Tour. Aryna Sabalenka just completed the Sunshine Double, having reached the Australian Open final earlier this year. She is 23-1 on the season.

Elena Rybakina is having a phenomenal start to the year too and, through the first three months of the season, appears to be the only woman able to challenge Sabalenka.

But the shift to clay provides an opening for the rest of the tour. While both big-hitters are no slouches on the dirt, there are more questions as to their vulnerability on this surface. The National Bank Open power rankings dive into the tour’s clay-court dynamics.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before Indian Wells.)

*Note: Results from events the week of March 30 are not included.

1. Aryna Sabalenka (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2026 Record: 23-1
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami Champion
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid Champion (Three times)

Sabalenka is extending her stay atop the Power Rankings as she brings a few shiny souvenirs into the clay season. After losing in the Australian Open final then sitting out the Middle East swing, the recharged world No. 1 became the fifth woman to achieve the Sunshine Double.

The 27-year-old conceded just one set in each of her title runs in Indian Wells and Miami, both coming in the final. However, the pair of trophies might not have outshone Sabalenka’s 12-carat engagement ring, which she remains unbeaten with since first wearing it on court.

Sabalenka will be determined to keep the ring’s streak going and add even more lustre to her 2026 campaign. The two-time reigning WTA Player of the Year enters Madrid as the defending champion, hoisting the trophy twice in the last three years, but has yet to clinch the Rome title after losing in the quarters in 2025.

- Francesco

2. Coco Gauff (+4)

Actual Ranking: 3
2026 Record: 16-6
Notable Recent Result: Miami Runner-up
Best Big Clay Result: Roland-Garros Champion (2025)

It’s hard to forget how impressive – and somewhat unlucky – Gauff was on the dirt last year. The 22-year-old reached all the “Big” clay finals in 2025, beginning with a runner-up finish in both Madrid and Rome. However, Gauff left the clay season with the biggest prize, winning her maiden Roland-Garros title.

The American has been solid in the back half of the WTA 1000s pairs this year, reaching the semis in Dubai and her first final in Miami just last week. Rome has been the better of the two upcoming big events for Gauff as she made at least the semis the past two years, but she has shown that she can excel throughout the entirety of the clay season.

- Francesco

3. Elena Rybakina (-1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2026 Record: 21-5
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Final
Best Big Clay Result: Rome Champion (2023)

Rybakina’s consistency across the Sunshine Double showed that she could be destined for a deep run at the next two WTA 1000s, no matter the change in surface.

Following a retirement in Dubai, the Australian Open champion used that much-needed rest to get back to her best in Indian Wells. Rybakina earned convincing straight-set wins over Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina before falling to Sabalenka in the final. Then in Miami, the Kazakhstani came back from a set down to defeat Pegula again in the quarters but was stopped by Sabalenka once more in the semis.

Rybakina doesn’t have many points to defend in Madrid and Rome, finishing in the third round at both events in 2025. But the 26-year-old wasn’t near the same form as she is heading into this year’s clay season.

- Francesco

4. Iga Swiatek (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2026 Record: 12-6
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells QF
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid (2024), Rome (Three times), Roland Garros (Four times) Champion

Once the “Queen of Clay”, Swiatek is back on the surface that she had a hold over for multiple years. Since 2020, the Pole had won at least one Big clay title per year, earning a total of eight including three-straight Roland-Garros triumphs. However, that run came to an end in 2025 as her best result was the Madrid and French Open semifinals.

Now with a new coach, that refresh, coupled with a determined Swiatek looking to get back into the winner’s circle on her favourite surface, might be the recipe for the start of another wave of clay dominance for the former world No. 1.

- Francesco

5. Jessica Pegula (-1)

Actual Ranking: 5
2026 Record: 19-4
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami QF
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid Runner-Up (2022)

After an up-and-down 2025, Pegula is right back to her consistent self in 2026. Heading into the clay season, the veteran has reached the quarter-finals or better at every event she has played, including her fourth WTA 1000 title in Dubai.

While she may not have had as much success in her career on clay as on hard courts, she is no slouch on the surface. She has a title to her name and a runner-up finish at the 1000 level in Madrid. Given her strong recent results, Pegula should be confident heading onto the dirt.

As long as she can avoid Rybakina, who took her out in the quarter-finals at both legs of the Sunshine Double and in the semifinals of the Australian Open, she should be a threat at every tournament she plays.

- Pete

6. Victoria Mboko (-1)

Actual Ranking: 9
2026 Record: 19-6
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami QF
Best Big Clay Result: Roland-Garros Third Round (2025)

What does the rising star have in store for us on the clay?

Mboko has now passed the one-year mark since making the jump to the WTA Tour, although 2026 should be a fuller clay-court season than 2025. The teen played five WTA Tour main-draw matches on the dirt last year, going 3-2 with one of those losses being a three-setter to Gauff, who was the best player in the world on the surface last year. She also reached a WTA 125 final on clay last spring just before making her Grand Slam debut at Roland-Garros, where she reached the third round as a qualifier.

Since the start of the season, Mboko has been one of the most consistent players on tour, being one of only three women (along with Rybakina and Pegula) to reach the quarter-finals at three of the four WTA 1000 events so far. While her big hitting may be more suited to hard courts, the Canadian’s athleticism should allow her to keep rolling on the dirt.

- Pete

7. Elina Svitolina (+2)

Actual Ranking: 7
2026 Record: 20-5
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells SF
Best Big Clay Result: Rome Champion (Twice)

Svitolina is ranked as high as she has been since 2021, and her current form is showing shades of her former world No. 3 self. The Ukrainian made the semis at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells, plus she reached her first WTA 1000 final in eight years in Dubai.

Read also: Busy Start to the Clay Season

Svitolina won back-to-back titles in Rome in 2017-18 and, in 2025 alone, she made at least the quarters at every Big clay event, highlighted by a semifinal finish in Madrid. With the 30-year-old back at her very best, her impressive clay record is sure to be boosted this season.

- Francesco

8. Jasmine Paolini (New)

Actual Ranking: 8
2026 Record: 8-7
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Result: Rome Champion (2025)

Jasmine Paolini is back on her preferred surface, entering the clay season as a sure title (and fan) favourite in Rome once again. The 30-year-old swept the silverware on home soil last year, hoisting both the singles and doubles trophies, and became just the second Italian in the Open Era to win the individual crown.

Paolini’s history in Madrid and Roland-Garros isn’t too bad either. The Italian made the fourth round in the Spanish capital in just her third main-draw appearance there in 2024, and her maiden Grand Slam final came in Paris that same year.

- Francesco

9. Amanda Anisimova (-2)

Actual Ranking: 6
2026 Record: 11-6
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Result: Roland-Garros SF (2019)

Amanda Anisimova hasn’t quite rediscovered her early-career form on clay, but there’s always the chance that the memories will roll in once the American hits the dirt. The world No. 6 made her breakthrough at Roland-Garros in 2019, making the semis at just 17 years old, then she reached back-to-back quarters in Madrid and Rome three years later.

Anisimova was eliminated in round four at the French Open in 2025 – her joint-best Big clay result since 2022 – so the 24-year-old could build off that following a start to 2026 that’s highlighted by an Australian Open quarter-final and Dubai semi.

- Francesco

10. Karolina Muchova (-)

Actual Ranking: 11
2026 Record: 18-4
Notable Recent Result: Miami SF
Best Big Clay Result: Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2023)

Fun fact, Muchova is undefeated in 2026 against players ranked outside the Top 4. The only players to beat her this year: Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Gauff (twice).

For many years now, the Czech has been a bit of a “what if”-type player. Injuries have held her back but when she is healthy, she is easily one of the best players in the world. So far this year, she has been healthy and just look at how good she has been. A WTA 1000 title, round of 16 or better at every event she has played, 18-0 against non-Top 4 players.

Muchova has not played a full clay-court season since 2023. Over the last two years, she has only played one main draw match at one of the “Big” events. But the last time she was healthy on the dirt, not only did she reach the Roland-Garros final, she gave then-Queen of Clay Swiatek the toughest test the Pole ever faced in a French Open final.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Bold Prediction for the clay season:

Pete: None of Sabalenka, Rybakina, or Swiatek win a 1000 in the leadup to Roland-Garros... but then one of them will win in Paris.
Mel: Andreeva will turn her 2026 season around by winning a title during the clay court swing.
Jonathan: Mboko wins Madrid and heads into RG with a chance to move into the Top 5.
Eddie: Swiatek does not move past the quarter-finals in any of the clay court lead-ups heading into Roland-Garros.
Pat: Swiatek wins at least three titles before Roland-Garros.
Francesco: Mboko wins her second WTA 1000 title.
Ravi: Sabalenka wins the French Open.

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Feature Photo: WTA/Jimmie48 Photography/Rob Prange