ATP Power Rankings: Alcaraz and Djokovic Look…

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As fun as the Olympics are, they have a habit of making the tennis schedule a little complicated, which as a result make predictions for the US Open challenging.

The ATP Tour is in an interesting position heading into the final major of the year. The two men who reached the Olympic final combined for zero match wins (in only one total match) in the hard-court warm-up events.

And then there was the world No. 1, who took advantage of their absence to cement his place in the top spot.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings has a look at where the ATP’s best stack up ahead of the last Grand Slam event of 2024.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the National Bank Open. Players who withdrew prior to the NBO were not included in the last edition of the Power Rankings)

1. Jannik Sinner (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 48-5
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati Champion
Best US Open Result: Quarter-final (2022)

The world No. 1 will arrive in New York fresh off a title run in Cincinnati, which marked a bounce-back after a “dry spell” (only by his lofty 2024 standards). He is the only person on tour to have won multiple Masters 1000 titles this year, both on hard courts.

Amazingly, Sinner is STILL yet to lose before the quarter-finals in 2024, reaching the last eight at all 11 events he has played. He has also reached at least the semifinals at all but one event on a hard court this year.

- Pete

2. Carlos Alcaraz (New)

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 38-8
Notable Recent Results: Olympic Silver Medal
Best US Open Result: Champion (2022)

Alcaraz has won two of three majors this season with victories at the French Open and Wimbledon. He captured a silver medal for his country at the Paris Olympics and is the youngest men’s player in history to win slams on three different surfaces.

So should we really be too worried that he lost an opening-round match in Cincinnati? 

Alcaraz is the most talented and complete player in the sport. Expect nothing less than a deep run at Flushing Meadows with a shot at a second-career US Open crown.

- Ben

3. Novak Djokovic (New)

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 29-7
Notable Recent Results: Olympic Gold Medal
Best US Open Result: Champion (four times)

After all the possible warning signs of ageing and vulnerability in the first half of the season, Djokovic managed the almost unthinkable in Paris, winning the Olympic gold medal at 37 years old.

The superstar has now won everything of note in the sport, from majors to Masters to ATP Finals victories and more.

So why would the 24-time major winner stop now? The defending champion returns to New York surely beaming with confidence, although it is worth noting that he has not played a match since the Olympic final which was on clay.

- Ben

4. Alexander Zverev (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 52-16
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati SF
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2020)

Zverev was agonizingly close to reaching the final in Cincinnati. It took a superhuman effort from Sinner to deny him in their thrilling semifinal clash. Despite the loss, the German was one of four players to reach the quarter-finals in both Montreal and southwest Ohio.

He has been hyper-consistent since his title run in Rome back in May, only failing to reach the quarter-finals of one tournament. Zverev is also entering one of his better majors, where he has reached at least the quarter-finals in his last three appearances.

- Pete

5. Andrey Rublev (+1)

Actual Ranking: 6
2024 Record: 34-17
Notable Recent Results: Montreal runner-up
Best US Open Result: Quarter-final (four times)

Through the first five Masters 1000 events of 2024, no player had reached two finals this year. The first to do it? Andrey Rublev when he reached the title match at the National Bank Open.

While his defeat in the Montreal final against Alexei Popyrin was a missed opportunity, the fact remains that Rublev had a great summer, adding a Cincinnati quarter-final the following week, where he lost to the eventual champion (and the only other player to reach two Masters 1000 finals in 2024) Sinner.

He is as well-primed as ever to finally break his Grand Slam quarter-final funk.

- Pete

6. Daniil Medvedev (-4)

Actual Ranking: 5
2024 Record: 35-13
Notable Recent Results: Olympics R3
Best US Open Result: Champion (2021)

As crazy as it might seem, former US Open champion and self-proclaimed “hard-court specialist” Daniil Medvedev will go into the US Open without a match win on a hard-court since Miami, having lost his opening matches in both Montreal and Cincinnati. It is the first time since 2017 that has happened to him.

Still, Medvedev is one of the best hard-court players in the world and always brings his A-game to New York. He has reached three finals at the US Open since 2019, winning one, and has reached four of the last five semifinals.

- Pete

7. Holger Rune (+3)

Actual Ranking: 15
2024 Record: 33-17
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati SF
Best US Open Result: Third round (2022)

While Rune has reached the round of 16 this season at the French Open and Wimbledon, the all-court player has had lulls in 2024 and recently parted ways with high-profile coach, Patrick Mouratoglou.

He has since appeared to have turned a corner. The 21-year-old produced his best Masters 1000 result of the year in Cincinnati, making a run to the semifinals and knocking off tough opponents like Matteo Berrettini and Jack Draper along the way.

He’s peaking at the perfect time to do some damage.

- Ben

8. Taylor Fritz (-4)

Actual Ranking: 12
2024 Record: 38-16
Notable Recent Results: Olympic R3
Best US Open Result: Quarter-final (2023)

There’s a fun yet highly competitive rivalry on the ATP circuit to hold the spot as the top-ranked American man. 26-year-old Taylor Fritz has proven to be the most consistent of the group and rests just ahead of compatriots Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton heading into Flushing Meadows.

Fritz has all the tools for a big run on the hard courts – a booming serve, crisp and powerful groundstrokes, and big match experience. He’s been to two Grand Slam quarter-finals this year and is no doubt hungry to go a step further in New York.

- Ben

9. Frances Tiafoe (New)

Actual Ranking: 20
2024 Record: 24-19
Notable Recent Results: Cincinnati Runner-Up
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2022)

Is Frances Tiafoe back?

2024 has largely been a disappointment for the American, but he has shown signs of life this summer on home soil, reaching the semifinals in Washington with a win over Rublev and then reaching his first Masters 1000 final last week in Cincinnati.

The US Open has historically been his best major, having reached his maiden Grand Slam semifinal in 2022 and getting to the quarters last year. It seems like the stars are aligning for Big Foe to get back to his big, ball-bashing ways in the Big Apple.

- Pete

10. Hubert Hurkacz (-3)

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 38-16
Notable Recent Results: Montreal and Cincinnati QF
Best US Open Result: Second Round (five times)

When Hurkacz went down with a nasty-looking knee injury at Wimbledon, it seemed like he could be out for a while recovering. Instead, he turned around and reached back-to-back quarter-finals in Montreal, where he lost an epic three-setter to the eventual champion Popyrin, and Cincinnati.

It is worth noting however that at the latter, he retired in the last eight, albeit with a calf injury rather than the knee he hurt at Wimbledon. What Hurkacz showed at the two Masters 1000s though is that when he is feeling good, he remains very reliable with that big serve of his.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes: