ATP Power Rankings: Clay Shifts Tour Dynamics

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So far in 2024, the young guns have dominated the ATP Tour ahead the clay season. Three big titles have been claimed, divided amongst two of the tour's best young stars.

But that was all on hard courts. The next few months will be all about clay, which has the potential to shake up the tour.

This week, the NBO Power Rankings panel dives into how the world’s best stand on the dirt.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before Indian Wells.)

1. Carlos Alcaraz (+4)

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 15-4
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Champion
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid Champion (2022, 2023), Roland-Garros SF (2023)

Carlitos is back! After an extended slump without a title following his Wimbledon crown last summer, the Spanish phenom righted the ship at Indian Wells, winning his 13th career ATP title and fifth Masters 1000 crown.

Though he would falter in the quarter-finals of the Miami Open to a red-hot Grigor Dimitrov, the switch has undoubtedly flipped. Alcaraz can use his full toolbox of shots, heavy spin and power, and dynamic, electric movement to dominate the clay, a surface where he already boasts an elite 80.5% winning percentage.

- Ben

2. Jannik Sinner (-1)

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 22-1
Notable Recent Results: Miami Champion
Best Big Clay Results: Rome QF (2022), Roland-Garros QF (2020)

Jannik Sinner is having a moment.

With three new crowns in his trophy case since the start of year and a sparkling 22-1 record, he’s riding high into the clay season. The newly minted World No.2 could make the most of the change of courts to stake his claim at the very top of the ATP hierarchy, but first he’ll have to get past Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, who’ll be vying for the titles of king of clay and the ATP.

What should we expect from Jannik over the next few weeks? He’s got only 585 points to defend, so anything’s possible.

- Sarah-Jade

3. Novak Djokovic (-1)

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 8-3
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells R3
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2x), Madrid (3x), Rome (6x) and Roland-Garros (3x) Champion

It’s the most vulnerable Novak Djokovic has looked in years. The world no. 1 is yet to win a title in 2024, lost in his second match at Indian Wells to little-known Italian Luca Nardi, pulled out of Miami, and then let go of his long-time coach Goran Ivanisevic.

However, he’s shown an immense ability to bounce back after tough defeats.

Last season, he struggled heading into Roland-Garros before turning up to his win his third career French Open. He remains one of the fittest, most elite athletes in the world and already arrived at Monte Carlo early for clay preparations.

- Ben

4. Alexander Zverev (NEW)

Actual Ranking: 5
2024 Record: 18-6
Notable Recent Results: Miami SF
Best Big Clay Results: Madrid (2018, 2021) and Rome (2017) Champion, Roland-Garros SF (2021-2023)

Zverev had a solid run during the Sunshine Double, reaching the Indian Wells quarter-finals and Miami semifinals. Having done well on the hard-court 1000s, expectations will be high for him as the tour shifts to clay.

The German has three 1000 titles on the dirt to his name, two in Madrid and one in Rome, and has reached three straight Roland-Garros semifinals. The last time he was fully healthy during the clay season in 2022, he reached the semis or better at every big event on the surface.

- Pete

5. Daniil Medvedev (-2)

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 18-4
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Results: Rome Champion (2023), Roland-Garros QF (2021)

A card-carrying member of the Top 10 since 2019, Daniil Medvedev has proven time and time again that he’s a contender at every tournament he enters.

He’s been pretty open about how he feels about clay and still managed to win the 2023 Rome Masters without dropping a set. A finalist in Indian Wells, Mr. Octopus will be reaching for every ball and forcing his opponents to make errors.

- Abraham

6. Casper Ruud (+1)

Actual Ranking: 8
2024 Record: 18-5
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells QF
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2021), Madrid (2021), and Rome (3x) SF, Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2022, 2023)

Will 2024 be Casper Ruud’s year?

He got his season off to a solid start and will be bringing high expectations to the clay courts. On his absolute favourite surface, he holds nine singles titles, two RG finals (2023 and 2022) and a 217-102 record.

Could he go three for three at French Open finals and maybe even bring the Coupe des Mousquetaires home to Norway?

- Sarah-Jade

7. Holger Rune (+2)

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 13-7
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells QF
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo and Rome Runner-Up (2023), Roland-Garros QF (2023)

If there’s anyone looking poised to take a step forward from the 2023 clay-court season, it’s 20-year-old Holger Rune. The young talent has quickly emerged as a Top 10 player in the ATP rankings and has shown incredible prowess on clay in the past. Rune made three clay-court finals in 2023 including a title in Munich, and finalist results at both the Monte-Carlo and Rome Masters 1000 events.

He ended his early season hard court swing with a whimper, being defeated by Fabian Marozsan 6-1, 6-1 in Miami which should give him plenty of motivation to get back on track on the red clay in Europe.

- Mike

8. Grigor Dimitrov (NEW)

Actual Ranking: 9
2024 Record: 20-5
Notable Recent Results: Miami Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo (2018, 2022) and Rome (2014) SF, Roland-Garros R4 (2020, 2023)

Grigor Dimitrov turned back the clocks in Miami, reaching his third Masters 1000 final in dramatic fashion by taking down three of the Top 10 seeds, Hubert Hurkacz, top seed Alcaraz, and Zverev, on his way to a finals clash with Sinner.

It’s been a solid run of late for the resurgent former world No. 3. He has now reached three finals in 2024 and two of the last three Masters 1000 finals dating back to Paris last November. He has done well at the clay 1000s in the past, having reached the Monte-Carlo and Rome Semis and the Madrid quarters.

- Pete

9. Andrey Rublev (-3)

Actual Ranking: 6
2024 Record: 15-6
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells R3
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo Champion (2023), Roland-Garros QF (2020, 2022)

Andrey Rublev is definitely looking forward to the clay court season. The reigning champion in Monte Carlo will be focused on defending his title after a disappointing Sunshine Double.

Read also: WTA Pre-Clay Power Rankings

The World No. 6 may wear his heart on his sleeve, but he remains a dangerous opponent with an arsenal of weapons. To reach his goals, he’ll have to fight his rivals and his demons.

- Abraham

10. Stefanos Tsitsipas (NEW)

Actual Ranking: 12
2024 Record: 11-6
Notable Recent Results: Indian Wells R4
Best Big Clay Results: Monte-Carlo Champion (2021, 2022), Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2021)

Flying somewhat under the radar thus far in 2024 is Stefanos Tsitsipas, although the world No. 12 should very much be included when talking about the top clay-court players in the world. He’s a former French Open finalist, has won the title in Monte-Carlo twice, and has reached the finals of Barcelona, Madrid and Rome.

Read also: Shapovalov – 2024 Edition

His record at the big clay court Masters 1000 events and the French Open is an impressive 60-21. In 2023 he was bested by Carlos Alcaraz in the finals of Barcelona as well as the quarter-finals in Paris, but will be looking to get back to his usual comfort level on the surface this Spring.

- Mike

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Content Editor, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ben Lewis – Host, Match Point Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Mike McIntyre – Host, Match Point Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne

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Feature Photo : BNP Paribas Open