WTA Power Rankings: More Surprises Coming at Wimbledon?

Between the world’s best player being on her weakest surface, the general lack of grass-court specialists in the modern era, and injuries seemingly affecting the majority of the top players, it feels like almost anyone could sneak up and win Wimbledon.

Not unlike last year.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings try to clarify where the WTA stars stand ahead of the Championships.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before Roland-Garros)

1. Aryna Sabalenka (+1)

• Actual Ranking: 3
• 2024 Record: 30-9
• Notable Recent Results: Berlin QF
• Best Wimbledon Result: Semifinal (Twice)

It was hardly an ideal grass-court swing leading up to Wimbledon for Aryna Sabalenka.

She completed just one match at the event in Berlin, a straight-set win over Daria Kasatkina, before retiring mid-match against Anna Kalinskaya in the quarter-finals.

That being said, the two-time Aussie Open champion’s game is well suited to the courts at the All England Club. She plays aggressively inside the court, her movement has improved, and she of course has Grand Slam pedigree.

- Ben

2. Iga Swiatek (-1)

• Actual Ranking: 1
• 2024 Record: 45-4
• Notable Recent Results: Roland-Garros Champion
• Best Wimbledon Result: Quarter-final (2023)

For the first time in 2024, Iga Swiatek is NOT at the top of the NBO Power Rankings.

The world No. 1 enters the part of the season where she has had the least success in her career. Despite having won Wimbledon as a junior, she has never made it past the quarter-finals at the All England Club as a pro and has never reached a grass final.

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At least she will arrive in London rested, having not played since winning her fifth major at Roland-Garros last month.

- Pete

3. Elena Rybakina (-)

• Actual Ranking: 4
• 2024 Record: 35-7
• Notable Recent Results: Berlin QF
• Best Wimbledon Result: Champion (2022)

If Elena Rybakina is healthy, she might be the top favourite in the women’s draw at Wimbledon. The 2022 champion’s big serve and powerful game are perfectly suited to grass and she had a great start to the year on the hard courts.

However, her health raises question marks about her status at the All England Club. She pulled out of Berlin with an illness, the third time in 2024 she has withdrawn from an event because she felt under the weather. But if she is feeling good, she will be hard to stop.

- Pete

4. Coco Gauff (-)

• Actual Ranking: 2
• 2024 Record: 32-10
• Notable Recent Results: Berlin SF
• Best Wimbledon Result: Fourth round (twice)

Just look at how far Coco Gauff has come since this time last year. Now the No. 2 player in the world, with a major title to her name, the 20-year-old American has gained so much confidence and respect over that time.

While her best result is the round of 16 at the All England Club, Gauff’s athleticism lends itself well to success on grass. Recently she made the semifinals of the Berlin Ladies Open, falling to Jessica Pegula.

- Mike

5. Ons Jabeur (+4)

• Actual Ranking: 10
• 2024 Record: 14-12
• Notable Recent Results: Nottingham and Berlin QF
• Best Wimbledon Result: Runner-up (twice)

Ons Jabeur has made it clear that her tennis dream is to hoist the trophy at the All England Club.

She’s come painfully close in back-to-back years. In 2022, she lost in the final to Elena Rybakina, while last year finished runner-up to Czechia’s Marketa Vondrousova.

The Tunisian possesses the most variety in her toolbox of any player on the WTA, which makes her an exceptionally dangerous player on the low-bouncing grass. While Jabeur struggled through injuries in the early part of the season, a quarter-final run at the French Open tells us she’s very close to her best again.

- Ben

6. Jessica Pegula (New)

• Actual Ranking: 5
• 2024 Record: 19-7
• Notable Recent Results: Berlin Champion
• Best Wimbledon Result: Quarter-final (2023)

Jessica Pegula comes to Wimbledon this year with a new coach from a year ago and a renewed desire to break through at a major. She certainly arrives at SW19 with momentum on her side, a recent champion in Berlin where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in a closely contested final 6-7(0), 6-4, 7-6(3).

The American has made the quarter-finals at every major, including at this event a year ago, but is looking to prove she can go a couple of steps further.

- Mike

7. Marketa Vondrousova (New)

• Actual Ranking: 6
• 2024 Record: 16-10
• Notable Recent Results: Berlin R2
• Best Wimbledon Result: Champion (2023)

A year ago, Marketa Vondrousova shocked the tennis world by winning more grass matches in two weeks than she had in her entire career on her way to becoming the first unseeded woman to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish.

She faces another uphill battle this year in her title defence. The Czech has struggled with form all year and retired from her last event in Berlin with an injury. However, Vondrousova proved last year that she can turn it on when you least expect it.

- Pete

8. Danielle Collins (-2)

• Actual Ranking: 11
• 2024 Record: 36-11
• Notable Recent Results: Roland-Garros R2
• Best Wimbledon Result: Third round (2019)

While Danielle Collins has cooled off a bit since her incredible run in the spring and has not played since Roland-Garros, her game is better suited for grass than clay.

Collins has not had a lot of success in singles in the past at Wimbledon but has reached the semifinals of the doubles. Her big serve and powerful groundstrokes can blow anyone off the court on the speedy lawns of the All England Club.

- Pete

9. Jelena Ostapenko (-4)

• Actual Ranking: 13
• 2024 Record: 23-11
• Notable Recent Results: Eastbourne R2
• Best Wimbledon Result: Semifinal (2018)

Earlier in the season, Jelena Ostapenko was looking more and more like the player who won Roland-Garros in 2017. During that stretch of her career, the Latvian had her best results at Wimbledon, reaching the quarter-finals and semifinals in consecutive years. 

Read also: The Wonders of Grass-Court Tennis

While the 2024 grass season has not gone well for Ostapenko, she has a good record on the surface in recent years, having reached at least one final in each of the previous three seasons, winning two of them. When she’s on, she can win on grass.

- Pete

10. Liudmila Samsonova (New)

• Actual Ranking: 15
• 2024 Record: 15-14
• Notable Recent Results: s-Hertogenbosch Champion
• Best Wimbledon Result: Fourth round (2021)

Liudmila Samsonova played the role of Canadian heartbreaker just the other week, overcoming Bianca Andreescu in the finals of the Libema Open. It was a great showcase of clean ball striking on the fast surface, something the 25-year-old does exceptionally well.

Samsonova has been steadily improving on tour the last few seasons, showing she belongs in the upper echelon of the rankings. The one thing missing is a Grand Slam run – she’s yet to reach the quarter-finals of a major in singles.

- Ben

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

• Pete Borkowski – Content Editor, Tennis Canada
• Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
• Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
• Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
• Ben Lewis – Host, Match Point Canada
• Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
• Mike McIntyre – Host, Match Point Canada
• Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
• Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Wimbledon Predictions

Champion:

• Pete: Aryna Sabalenka
• Mel: Aryna Sabalenka
• Ben: Aryna Sabalenka
• Hugues: Ons Jabeur
• Abraham: Elena Rybakina
• Sarah-Jade: Coco Gauff
• Pat: Aryna Sabalenka

Dark Horse:

• Pete: Bianca Andreescu
• Mel: Anna Kalinskaya
• Ben: Karolina Pliskova
• Abraham: Katie Boulter
• Sarah-Jade: Victoria Azarenka
• Pat: Caroline Garcia

Bold Prediction:

• Pete: There will be a first-time major finalist
• Mel: Two first-time Wimbledon finalists will play for the title
• Ben: A Brit will reach the quarter-finals
• Hugues: None of the top three reach the second week
• Sarah-Jade: Anna Kalinskaya will reach the final
• Pat: Katie Boulter makes at least the quarter-finals

The WTA's best return to Toronto this summer for the National Bank Open August 4 to 12, 2024 at Sobeys Stadium. 2024 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!

Feature Photo: Martin Sidorjak