ATP Power Rankings: The Most Open French Open in…

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For the first time since Rafael Nadal won his maiden title at Roland-Garros in 2005, all of the big clay-court titles in the lead up to the year’s second major were won by players not named either Nadal or Djokovic.

In fact, the two men who have won 17 of the last 19 French Open titles have combined to reach zero finals in 2024. Put simply, they are not coming into Paris as the same dominant forces they have been for close to two decades.

Combined with injuries concerns surrounding Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner, Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz, and six-time major finalist Daniil Medvedev, this year’s Roland-Garros is looking like the most open competition since before Nadal began his reign.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings tries to figure out who might best be poised to take advantage and raise the Coupe des Mousquetaires.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the clay season began)

1. Carlos Alcaraz (-)

Actual Ranking: 3
2024 Record: 18-5
Notable Recent Results: Madrid QF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (2023)

It’s been an incomplete clay-court swing for world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz.

Held back by a forearm injury, the 21-year-old has competed in just one event on the red dirt, reaching the quarter-finals of the Madrid Open before bowing out in three sets to Andrey Rublev.

The Spaniard though insists he’s at full health, which could be a scary prospect for the rest of the field. The two-time Grand Slam champion captured Indian Wells in March, and often brings his very best on the slower clay surface, where he’s won seven of his 13 career titles.

- Ben

2. Alexander Zverev (+2)

Actual Ranking: 4
2024 Record: 28-9
Notable Recent Results: Rome Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (Three times)

Germany’s Alexander Zverev has quietly put together a strong 2024 campaign, punctuated by a big title on clay in Rome at the Internazionali BNL D’Italia.

It was the sixth Masters 1000 win of Zverev’s career and he’s been knocking on the door of a major for some time.

The 27-year-old was a runner-up at the 2020 US Open, and owns a 78 per cent winning percentage at Roland-Garros, where he’s made three consecutive semifinal appearances.

- Ben

3. Novak Djokovic (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2024 Record: 12-5
Notable Recent Results: Monte-Carlo SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (Three times)

Will Novak Djokovic defend his Roland-Garros title?

Your guess is as good as ours. He’s been lackluster since January and hasn’t had to make room in his trophy case once this season. And don’t forget all the players breathing down his neck with their eyes on the Coupe des Mousquetaires prize.

But if tennis has taught us anything, it’s that Novak should never, ever be taken lightly. He’s most dangerous when his back’s against the wall.

- Sarah-Jade

4. Casper Ruud (+2)

Actual Ranking: 7
2024 Record: 31-9
Notable Recent Results: Monte-Carlo Runner-Up, Barcelona Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (Twice)

Casper Ruud got off to a hot start on clay, reaching the Monte-Carlo final, beating Djokovic for the first time in the semis, and then winning the title in Barcelona. He cooled off in Madrid and Rome as he, like so many others, had some slight injury issues.

In 2023, he arrived in Paris having had a far worse clay-court swing and reached the final. Assuming he is healthy, there is no reason to believe he cannot threaten for the Coupe des Mousquetaires once again.

- Pete

5. Jannik Sinner (-3)

Actual Ranking: 2
2024 Record: 28-2
Notable Recent Results: Monte-Carlo SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: QF (2020)

Jannik Sinner has undoubtedly been the best player of the season on the ATP circuit. The stalwart Italian won his maiden major to begin the year the Australian Open, one of three titles he’s captured in 2024.

Unfortunately, the 22-year-old is navigating injury concerns heading into Roland-Garros. He withdrew from the Madrid Open quarterfinals with a hip injury and hasn’t competed since.

If Sinner is fit to make a run, another major isn’t the only thing in his sights. He can become the first Italian in tennis history to seize the world number one ranking if Djokovic is unable to reach the final or defend last season’s title in Paris.

- Ben

6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (+4)

Actual Ranking: 9
2024 Record: 24-9
Notable Recent Results: Monte-Carlo Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (2021)

Over the past few weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has reconfirmed his status as one of the best clay court players out there.

The proof is in the pudding: he dropped only one set en route to the title in Monte Carlo and flew into the final in Barcelona. A finalist at RG 2021, the titan is chomping at the bit to take home his first Grand Slam.

Will 2024 be his year? The odds seem to be in his favour.

7. Andrey Rublev (+2)

Actual Ranking: 6
2024 Record: 22-9
Notable Recent Results: Madrid Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-final (Twice)

With the field at Roland-Garros as open as it has been since probably 2004, this may be Andrey Rublev’s best chance to finally break through the Grand Slam quarter-final barrier he has tripped over 10 times.

While he failed to reach the quarter-finals at five of his last six events, his one deep run resulted in his second Masters 1000 title in Madrid, a run that included wins over Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz.

Rublev has been mostly automatic at slams lately, reaching the quarter-finals at six of the last seven majors he’s played.

- Pete

8. Daniil Medvedev (-3)

Actual Ranking: 5
2024 Record: 24-7
Notable Recent Results: Madrid QF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-final (2021)

Besides plenty of theatrics, what will Daniil Medvedev have in store for us at Roland-Garros?

Read also: Larger than life!

Swaying between self-confidence and self-doubt, he serves up sometimes spine-tingling, sometimes mind-numbing tennis on clay. His one and only title on the dirt came last year in Rome, where he dominated the entire week. Can he stir up the same magic again?

Expect his quest for the title to hinge on court speed.

9. Rafael Nadal (New)

Actual Ranking: 276
2024 Record: 7-4
Notable Recent Results: Madrid R4
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (14 times)

For the first time since his 2005 debut at Roland-Garros, it is fair to say that Rafael Nadal is not one of the heavy favourites for the title. He enters his most dominant event with just a 5-3 record on clay, having not even reached a quarter-final on the surface.

That being said, it’s Rafael Nadal at Roland-Garros. The man has almost five times more titles at the event than he has individual match losses. Even if he loses in the first round, his winning percentage at the clay-court major will still be 96.5%. No matter his health, the sheer weight of his legacy in the minds of opponents could give him enough of an advantage to steal some wins that may seem unlikely based on his form.

He may not still have the level that carried him to more titles than all but three other men have total Grand Slams, but Rafael Nadal at Roland-Garros remains the most dominant force all of sport has ever seen. Bet against him at your own peril.

- Pete

10. Holger Rune (-3)

Actual Ranking: 13
2024 Record: 19-11
Notable Recent Results: Monte-Carlo QF, Munich SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (Twice)

There is no denying that Holger Rune is arriving at Roland-Garros with less momentum than he did in 2023, when he had reached two Masters 1000 finals before getting to the last eight in Paris.

This year, he has a quarter-final in Monte-Carlo and a semifinal at the 250 event in Munich on his record. While his results may have been below expectations, he has still reached the quarter-finals in Paris each of his two appearances, so it is a venue where he should be confident.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Content Editor, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Ben Lewis – Host, Match Point Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Mike McIntyre – Host, Match Point Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Roland-Garros 2024 Predictions:

Champions:

Pete: Carlos Alcaraz
Mel: Carlos Alcaraz
Sarah-Jade: Carlos Alcaraz
Eddie: Carlos Alcaraz
Hugues: Casper Ruud
Ben: Carlos Alcaraz
Pat: Carlos Alcaraz

Dark Horse:

Pete: Nicolas Jarry
Mel: Ben Shelton
Sarah-Jade: Francisco Cerundolo
Eddie: Alejandro Tabilo
Hugues: Alejandro Tabilo
Pat: Tommy Paul
Ben: Alejandro Tabilo

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Rafael Nadal will “upset” a Top 10 player
Mel: Novak Djokovic will NOT reach the semis
Sarah-Jade: Rafael Nadal will make the QFs
Eddie: Rafael Nadal will NOT reach the second week
Hugues: Rafael Nadal will reach the second week
Pat: Novak Djokovic will have to come from two sets to love down at least once.
Ben: Nicolas Jarry will reach his first Grand Slam quarter-final

The ATP's best return to Montreal this summer for the National Bank Open August 3 to 12, 2024 at IGA Stadium. 2024 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!