ATP Power Rankings: Who Might Be Canada’s Next…

Fun fact: the last three men’s champions at the National Bank Open have all been first-time Masters 1000 winners.

In 2022, Pablo Carreno Busta caused a shock by claiming his first Masters 1000 title in Montreal at the age of 31. The next year, Jannik Sinner finally broke through for his first big title that kicked off his rise to No. 1. And then last year, it was Alexei Popyrin coming from nowhere to lift the trophy.

Can it really happen four years in a row?

For this edition of the National Bank Open Power Rankings, we’re doing something a little different. We are exclusively ranking players who have NEVER won a Masters 1000 title in their careers based on who we think could claim their first over the coming fortnight in Toronto.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best players out there looking for their big breakthrough.

*Note: Players who have withdrawn from the 2025 National Bank Open prior to publication of this article on July 24 were not eligible for this edition of the Power Rankings. These Power Rankings do not reflect any withdrawals that took place after July 24. Players who have won a Masters 1000 title are also excluded.

1) Ben Shelton

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 23-15
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon QF*
Best Masters 1000 Result: Quarter-Final (Three times)
Best NBO Result: Second round (twice)

Bizarre stat: Shelton has reached more Grand Slam quarter-finals (four) and semifinals (two) than he has at the Masters 1000 level, despite playing nearly twice as many 1000 events in his career. He has reached just three Masters 1000 quarter-finals, the most recent being in March in Indian Wells, and has never gotten to the final four.

Surely, given his extremely strong record in majors, he is due for a deep run at a 1000?

The power rankings panel certainly thinks so, as he was a unanimous pick as the most likely player to claim their first Masters 1000 title over the next two weeks in Toronto. Shelton is at his best on fast surfaces, especially fast hard courts. His huge lefty serve is a nightmare for even the best returners.

*Shelton is playing this week in Washington.

- Pete

2) Alex de Minaur

Actual Ranking: 13
2025 Record: 30-13
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon R4
Best Masters 1000 Result: 2023 Toronto Runner-Up
Best NBO Result: Runner-Up

De Minaur was very nearly a part of that run of first-time champions in Canada, as he reached the Toronto final back in 2023, his lone Masters 1000 final to date. Had he won it, his only mention in this article would have been in the second paragraph in the list of surprise winners. But he lost that title match to an ascending Sinner.

Still, that Toronto run was a springboard for the Demon, who broke into the Top 10 the following year. The persistent Aussie has been very consistent in 2025, reaching at least the fourth round of every Masters 1000 event. He also reached four straight Grand Slam quarter-finals from Roland-Garros 2024 to this year’s Australian Open. However, he is still trying to get back to a big final as he returns to the site of his first.

- Pete

3) Lorenzo Musetti

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 25-10
Notable Recent Result: ATP 500 Washington R2
Best Masters 1000 Result: Monte-Carlo Runner-Up (2025)
Best NBO Result: Third Round (2023)

Injury struggles may have put a dent in Lorenzo Musetti’s grass court season, but it’s impossible to ignore the 23-year-old’s Masters 1000 results in 2025 heading into the National Bank Open.

The Carrara-native reached the semifinal at all the big clay events, appearing in his maiden Masters 1000 final in Monte-Carlo.

On the concrete, Musetti made the fourth round in Miami, losing to one of the hard-court greats, Novak Djokovic. So, expect the Italian to find his form in Toronto and contend for the title.

- Francesco

4) Frances Tiafoe

Actual Ranking: 11
2025 Record: 18-15
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon R2*
Best Masters 1000 Result: 2024 Cincinnati Runner-Up
Best NBO Result: Third Round (Twice)

Summer hard courts are where Tiafoe plays his best tennis, which makes him a prime candidate to score his first Masters 1000 trophy in Toronto. The powerful American had his best result at the Masters 1000 level last summer in Cincinnati, reaching the final, and has also reached at least the quarter-finals three years running at the US Open.

In each of the last three years, Tiafoe reached exactly one Grand Slam quarter-final (or better) and one Masters 1000 quarter-final (or better). He already hit his Grand Slam quota for the year, but he’s due for a deep run at a 1000.

He also has a weird habit of playing Canadians in Toronto, having clashed with a local favourite every time he has made the trip to Ontario’s capital. In the ATP’s last visit, he was upset by a resurgent Milos Raonic in the first round, which was revenge for a 2018 clash between the two at Sobeys Stadium won by Tiafoe. In between, he beat Denis Shapovalov in the 2021 first round.

*Tiafoe is playing this week in Washington

- Pete

5) Flavio Cobolli

Actual Ranking: 18
2025 Record: 22-16
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon QF*
Best Masters 1000 Result: Madrid R3 (Twice)
Best NBO Result: Second Round (2024)

Cobolli will have some extra expectations in Toronto this year. The 23-year-old is in the Top 20 for the first time after a quarter-final run at the All-England Club.

In 2025, the Florence-native won a 250 title in Bucharest and a 500 in Hamburg so, as the occasion keeps getting bigger, a Masters 1000 title is in the cards for the Italian No. 3.

Cobolli made the third round at four big hard court events last year as he looks to be the second-straight Italian man to hoist the trophy at Sobey’s Stadium.

*Cobolli is playing this week in Washington.

- Francesco

6) Denis Shapovalov

Actual Ranking: 28
2025 Record: 19-14
Notable Recent Result: ATP 250 Los Cabos Champion
Best Masters 1000 Result: 2019 Paris Runner-Up
Best NBO Result: Semifinal (2017)

Can the hometown hero be the one to keep Canada’s first-time winner streak going?

Shapovalov, the most geographically local player in the draw at the 2025 National Bank Open from nearby Richmond Hill, arrives in Toronto fresh off his second title of the year in Los Cabos. The Canadian No. 2 dominated the field on the Pacific coast, losing a mere 18 games in the title run.

The local boy will look to carry his momentum back home and parlay it into his first deep run at a 1000 in years. He last reached the semis of a Masters 1000 back in 2020 in Rome and his lone final at this level came at the 2019 Paris Masters.

- Pete

7) Félix Auger-Aliassime

Actual Ranking: 27
2025 Record: 26-16
Notable Recent Result: Hopman Cup Champion
Best Masters 1000 Result: 2024 Madrid Runner-Up
Best NBO Result: Quarter-final (2022)

Auger-Aliassime may need a good result in Toronto to remain the highest-ranked Canadian man. He is just one spot above Shapovalov heading into the National Bank Open and Gabriel Diallo is snapping at both of their heels.

Like Shapovalov, Auger-Aliassime should be coming home with some confidence. Similar to his retiring countryman Vasek Pospisil, the Montrealer seems to find another level when representing his country and he showed it again last week, teaming up with Bianca Andreescu to win Canada’s first Hopman Cup title.

Now Auger-Aliassime just needs to pretend like playing on home soil is the same as playing for his country abroad so that he can find that extra gear.

- Pete

8) Gabriel Diallo

Actual Ranking: 35
2025 Record: 21-14
Notable Recent Result: ATP 250 ‘s-Hertogenbosch Champion
Best Masters 1000 Result: Madrid Quarter-Final (2025)
Best NBO Result: Second round (2023)

Sitting at a career-high 35th in the rankings, Diallo has had an impressive 2025 so far. The Montreal-native hoisted his first ATP Tour trophy in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and made the quarter-final in Madrid against the odds as a lucky loser.

The Canadian No. 3 is also competing for a maiden 500 title in Washington this where he’s through to the third round and will face Shelton.

Toronto was where Diallo made his mark in 2023, earning his first ATP main draw win against world No. 21 Daniel Evans. This year, maybe another milestone is in the cards for the 23-year-old in Canada's largest city – a first Masters 1000 title.

*Diallo is playing this week in Washington.

-Francesco

9) Joao Fonseca

Actual Ranking: 47
2025 Record: 15-11
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon R3
Best Masters 1000 Result: Miami R3 (2025)
Best NBO Result: Debut

Many eyes should be on Fonseca as the Brazilian teenager makes his debut at the 2025 National Bank Open. The 18-year-old doesn’t shy away from a big event, having reached the third round at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon.

The Rio de Janeiro-native also won his maiden ATP Tour title in Buenos Aires, defeating home favourite Francisco Cerundolo in the final.

If fellow teenager Jakub Mensik could hoist the trophy in Miami, don't put it past Fonseca to do the same in Toronto.

-Francesco

10) Alexander Bublik

Actual Ranking: 30
2025 Record: 20-15
Notable Recent Result: ATP 250 Gstaad Champion
Best Masters 1000 Result: Madrid & Miami Quarter-Final (2021)
Best NBO Result: Second Round (2021)

Bublik has all the momentum heading into the National Bank Open. The Kazakhstani hoisted two trophies in the last month, a 250 in Gstaad and 500 in Halle, and reached his first Grand Slam quarter-final at Roland-Garros.

The 28-year-old has had some memorable viral moments in Canada, and the next could very well be a maiden Masters 1000 title. Bublik made his breakthrough on the concrete in Miami in 2021 and has appeared in eight ATP Tour finals on hard court.

-Francesco

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

The ATP's best return to Toronto this summer for the National Bank Open presented by Rogers July 26 to Aug. 7, 2025 at Sobeys Stadium. 2025 Tickets are on sale. Get your tickets today!

Feature Photo : Tyler Anderson