ATP Power Rankings: Will Roland-Garros be…

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The first true post-Rafael Nadal Roland-Garros gets underway over the weekend, but the ATP Tour seems to have identified a clear heir apparent.

A second French Open title for Carlos Alcaraz would likely cement the young Spaniard’s succession to his retired countryman’s throne as the King of Clay. But it won't be easy.

There are plenty of players who likely sense an opportunity to claim the clay major, including a recently-returned World No. 1 who seems as strong as ever.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings evaluate the challengers for the throne in Paris.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the start of the clay season)

1) Carlos Alcaraz (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 30-5
Notable Recent Result: Monte-Carlo and Rome Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (2024)

As the man many are calling the next King of Clay, Alcaraz has certainly shown why he’s the heir presumptive to the throne. The former World No. 1 has had a near-perfect start to the clay season, with his only loss coming in the Barcelona final to Holger Rune.

Alcaraz withdrew from Madrid but won in Monte-Carlo and Rome, becoming the first player to win multiple clay Masters 1000 titles in a season since Rafael Nadal. That’s some good company to be a part of as Alcaraz looks to be the first man to defend the Roland-Garros crown since, of course, Nadal.

- Francesco

2) Jannik Sinner (+3)

Actual Ranking: 1
2025 Record: 12-1
Notable Recent Result: Rome Runner-Up
Best Roland-Garros Result: Semifinal (2024)

The world No. 1’s return to the tour after a three-month absence could not have gone much better. Sinner barely looked like he had missed a beat, cruising into the Rome final in his first tournament since the Australian Open

Sure, he lost that final to Alcaraz, but that would have been an acceptable defeat even if Sinner had been playing a regular schedule. No shame in that loss.

Read Also: Sinner Returns in Rome

There is little reason to doubt that Sinner will be ready to make a push for his first non-hard court Slam at Roland-Garros. While he has never won a big clay title (yet), he has had plenty of deep runs, including coming within a set of the final last year in Paris.

- Pete

3) Casper Ruud (+1)

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 24-7
Notable Recent Result: Madrid Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (two times)

Ruud’s love for clay certainly shows in his play. The Norwegian won his first Masters 1000 title in Madrid this year, his 12th ATP title on the dirt. His triumph in the Spanish capital included impressive victories against Top 10 seeds Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, and Jack Draper.

The 26-year-old’s best Grand Slam has without a doubt been the French Open. Ruud has reached at least the semifinal for three-straight years, finishing as runner-up on two occasions. Could third time be a charm if Ruud is able to reach yet another final at Roland-Garros?

- Francesco

4) Alexander Zverev (-1)

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 24-9
Notable Recent Result: Munich Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (2024)

It would be fair to look at Zverev’s recent results and wonder if he should be among the favourites at Roland-Garros. The thing is, the German has a tendency to have some cold streaks heading into big events only to perform well.

And he did win the title at the 500 event in Munich.

At the end of the day, Zverev is the defending runner-up in Paris and has performed well throughout his career at big clay events. He has also been super consistent at Roland-Garros. He has reached at least the fourth round every year since 2017 and has gotten to the semis in the last four editions of the Parisian major.

- Pete

5) Jack Draper (+5)

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 22-6
Notable Recent Result: Madrid Runner-Up
Best Roland-Garros Result: 1R (two times)

Last year’s clay season wasn’t the kindest to Draper. The British No. 1 didn’t make it out of the second round of a big clay event. But this year, the 23-year-old looks to have gotten accustomed to the dirt.

Draper had notable wins against Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Musetti en route to finishing as the runner-up in Madrid. He then managed a quarter-final finish in Rome, losing to eventual winner Alcaraz. The Brit is ranked a career-high fifth in the ATP rankings so that should give Draper a favourable draw as he looks for his first Roland-Garros main draw win.

- Francesco

6) Lorenzo Musetti (New)

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 20-7
Notable Recent Result: Monte Carlo Runner-Up
Best Roland-Garros Result: Fourth Round (twice)

After Alcaraz, Musetti may have been the next-best player on clay this spring. The Italian is the only player to have reached the semifinals or better at all three clay Masters 1000 events this year, including his maiden Masters 1000 final in Monte Carlo.

He should also be confident at the Porte D’Auteuil. The last time he was there, Musetti had an Olympic bronze medal draped around his neck. There is plenty of reason to believe that Musetti can post his best-ever result at Roland-Garros over the coming weeks.

- Pete

7) Holger Rune (-)

Actual Ranking: 10
2025 Record: 17-11
Notable Recent Result: Barcelona Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (Twice)

It has been a bit of a boom-bust first half of the year for Rune, but that kind of feels like the norm for him. He reached the final of Indian Wells back in March, but has not gotten past the third round of a Masters 1000 event since.

However, he also won the title in Barcelona, handing (an albeit injured) Alcaraz his lone defeat on clay this year in the final. He also beat the soon-to-be Madrid champion Ruud on his way to the title.

Rune has plenty of experience in big matches and is capable of beating practically anyone on any given day if he has his best tennis.

- Pete

8) Novak Djokovic (-6)

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 12-7
Notable Recent Result: Geneva Semifinal
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (three times)

One of the greatest of all time. Normally, not much else needs to be said about Djokovic, but the former world No. 1 has struggled this clay season. The Belgrade-native lost in his opening match in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, the first time he has lost two straight opening matches since 2018.

However, Djokovic’s accolades speak for themselves. The 38-year-old has won a record 24 Grand Slams, three of which came at Roland-Garros. The Serb also won a gold medal on the dirt in Paris just last year, defeating Alcaraz in two tiebreakers.

- Francesco

9) Alex de Minaur (New)

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 26-10
Notable Recent Result: Monte-Carlo Semifinal
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (2024)

De Minaur has had some consistency on the dirt as of late. The Australian No. 1 has made it to at least the round of 16 in his last six ATP clay court tournaments, including a semifinal finish in Monte Carlo this year.

Read Also: Shaw Gearing up for RG

The 26-year-old had notable wins against Medvedev and Denis Shapovalov, but was eliminated by Top 12 opponents at all three clay Masters events. If de Minaur is able to get a big win at Roland-Garros, he could find himself in his first-career Grand Slam semifinal.

- Francesco

10) Tommy Paul (New)

Actual Ranking: 12
2025 Record: 21-8
Notable Recent Result: Rome SF
Best Roland-Garros Result: Third Round (2024)

Among the Americans, Tommy Paul is the strongest on clay. He has a particular affinity for Rome, having reached back-to-back semifinals in the eternal city.

So far this year on clay, he has secured wins over Joao Fonseca, Karen Khachanov, and Alex de Minaur. In Rome, he even pushed Sinner to three sets in their semifinal clash.

- Pete

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

2025 Roland-Garros Predictions:

Champion:

Pete: Carlos Alcaraz
Mel: Jannik Sinner
Sarah-Jade: Novak Djokovic
Jonathan: Jannik Sinner
Eddie: Carloz Alcaraz
Hugues: Carlos Alcaraz
Pat: Carlos Alcaraz
Francesco: Jannik Sinner
Ravi: Carlos Alcaraz

Dark Horse:

Pete: Arthur Fils
Mel: Arthur Fils
Jonathan: Francisco Cerundolo
Eddie: Francisco Cerundolo
Hugues: Arthur Fils
Pat: Mateo Arnaldi
Francesco: Francisco Cerundolo
Ravi: Francisco Cerundolo

Bold Prediction:

Pete: Jack Draper does not reach the third round.
Mel: Novak Djokovic does not make it through the first week.
Sarah-Jade: Novak Djokovic will win his last Grand Slam singles title.
Jonathan: Joao Fonseco will reach the quarter-finals.
Eddie: Novak Djokovic does not make it past the first week.
Pat: Carlos Alcaraz will not drop a set until the semis.
Francesco: Alexander Zverev will be eliminated before the quarter-final
Ravi: Joao Fonseca reaches the second week.

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Feature Photo: Martin Sidorjak