ATP Power Rankings: History Awaits Sinner at…

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Jannik Sinner has an opportunity to join the history books in more ways than one over the coming fortnight in Paris. And it’s hard to imagine him not succeeding.

With a maiden Roland-Garros title, the 24-year-old would become the 10th man to complete the Career Grand Slam (although funnily enough, the second to complete it in 2026), and would also be just the second man to complete the Clay Slam (winning all three clay Masters 1000 and Roland-Garros in the same year).

And given the fact that his biggest rival, two-time defending Roland-Garros champion Carlos Alcaraz, has pulled out of the tournament and that Sinner has not lost a match since February, it is fair to ask if anything can stop Sinner over the coming weeks in Paris.

There was never a doubt as to who would be No. 1 in the National Bank Open’s Roland-Garros Power Rankings, so the question being asked here is simple, but with a complicated answer: Is there anyone who can beat Jannik Sinner at the French Open?

Let’s size up the challengers.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before the start of the clay season.)

1) Jannik Sinner (+1)

Actual Ranking: 1
2026 Record: 36-2
Notable Recent Results: Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo, Madrid, and Rome Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (2025)

Not since Rafael Nadal in 2010 has a player been this overwhelming a favourite at Roland-Garros, perhaps at any Grand Slam event. That year, the King of Clay won in Paris without dropping a set, completing the only Clay Slam in history in the process. He went on to complete his Career Grand Slam later that year at the US Open.

Sinner is trying to do both over the next few weeks at Roland-Garros.

Several members of our panel discussed not even bothering to make an ATP list. Or at minimum, limiting it to Sinner and “the field.” We also toyed with, instead of players, listing elements like the weather or injuries that could stop the Italian. Sinner was our unanimous No. 1 and all of us picked him to win this title. In fact, one member of the panel did not submit a Top 10, they just sent the words “Jannik Sinner.”

And do we even have to explain why we felt this way? The world No. 1 just became the second man after Nadal to win all three clay Masters 1000s in the same season. He only lost three sets at those three events, two tiebreaks and a 7-5. He has won six straight Masters 1000 titles dating back to 2025. He has not lost a match since Doha in February. And the only player who is a consistent threat to him, Carlos Alcaraz, who also beat him at Roland-Garros the last two years, is absent.

It’s Sinner or the field, and we’re all taking Sinner.

- Pete

2) Alexander Zverev (+1)

Actual Ranking: 3
2026 Record: 28-9
Notable Recent Result: Masters 1000 Madrid Runner-up
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-up (2024)

In a world without Italian players, Zverev might have been in the running for the Clay Slam this year.

The German made at least the semifinals in his first three events of the clay season, losing to an Italian on each occasion – Sinner in Monte-Carlo and Madrid, Flavio Cobolli in Munich. That trend continued in Rome with a fourth-round loss to Luciano Darderi.

If Zverev can get over his skid against Italians, or avoid them altogether, he will be one of the stronger favourites at Roland-Garros. Past results suggest that the world No. 3 is bound for another deep run on the Parisian clay, missing out on the quarters just once in the last eight years, including a spell of four-straight semis and a runner-up finish in 2024.

With Zverev entering as the No. 2 seed, he will avoid Sinner until the final, where the 29-year-old will hope to get another crack at the world No. 1 as well as a maiden Grand Slam trophy.

- Francesco

3) Casper Ruud (+3)

Actual Ranking: 17
2026 Record: 17-10
Notable Recent Results: Masters 1000 Rome Runner-Up
Best Roland-Garros Result: Runner-Up (Twice)

Ruud was back to looking like one of the tour’s best clay-courters this spring, especially in Rome where he reached the final after tearing through the draw.

It has been a few years since Ruud was a true force on clay, but the 27-year-old has proven himself to be one of the best on the world on the surface when he is on his game. You don’t reach two Roland-Garros finals by accident. If he is feeling good, like he seemed to be in Rome, he has the potential to play way above his current ranking.

In a bizarre twist, Sinner’s pursuit of history may help Ruud’s chances of reaching the final. The Norwegian has a strange habit of being the runner-up when his opponent is chasing history in a final, including in Rome where Sinner beat him to complete the Career Golden Masters.

- Pete

4) Daniil Medvedev (+1)

Actual Ranking: 7
2026 Record: 24-8
Notable Recent Result: Masters 1000 Rome Semifinal
Best Roland-Garros Result: Quarter-Final (2021)

Medvedev seems to have patched up his relationship with clay after being very open about his grudge against the surface.

After a slow start to the clay season, the former world No. 1 significantly picked things up in Rome, an event he had previously won in 2023. The 30-year-old secured a gutsy win over Spanish qualifier Martin Landaluce in the quarters and took a set off Sinner in the semis before losing out to the eventual champion.

The question remains: can Medvedev keep it up at Roland-Garros? The world No. 7 has only made the second week of the French Open three times in his nine appearances – his best result was quarter-finalist in 2021. Like Zverev, all of Medvedev’s clay-court losses this season have come to an Italian so, if that obstacle is tackled or avoided, he may push for a first semifinal at Roland-Garros.

- Francesco

5) Novak Djokovic (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2026 Record: 7-3
Notable Recent Result: Rome Second Round
Best Roland-Garros Result: Champion (Three times)

Djokovic’s place in the power rankings is virtually cemented no matter how many matches the 38-year-old has played in the lead up to a major. The Serb did not play an event prior to the Australian Open and still made the final, defeating Sinner in five sets in the semis.

Djokovic lost his only match of the clay season so far but, in a best-of-five contest, the former world No. 1 will almost always be the favourite, especially with his sights still set on that illustrious 25th Grand Slam title. It was just three years ago when Djokovic took down world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz on the way to his third Roland-Garros trophy so, with only one member of the “New Two” to worry about this year, the Serb has a more encouraging route to the winner’s circle.

- Francesco

6) Arthur Fils (New)

Actual Ranking: 19
2026 Record: 22-7
Notable Recent Result: ATP 500 Barcelona Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Third Round (2022)

Fils will give the home crowd something to be very excited about this year at the French Open. Since his return from injury earlier this season, the world No. 19 has played some of the best tennis of his career and has been one of the most in-form players on the ATP Tour.

In Barcelona, Fils defeated the likes of world No. 9 Lorenzo Musetti and rising star Rafael Jodar en route to his second final of the year, beating world No. 15 Andrey Rublev in straights to hoist his first tour-level trophy since 2024. The French No. 1 carried that momentum into Madrid where he conceded just one set before losing to Sinner in the semifinals.

With Fils on a roll heading into Roland-Garros, there’s no doubt that his performances will be amplified in front of the roaring French faithful, which will pose a problem for the field.

- Francesco

7) Félix Auger-Aliassime (+2)

Actual Ranking: 5
2026 Record: 18-9
Notable Recent Result: Monte-Carlo Quarter-Final
Best Roland-Garros Result: Fourth Round (Twice)

When Auger-Aliassime finds his rhythm on clay, he becomes a serious threat. The Canadian No. 1 showed glimpses of that in the first set against two-time Roland-Garros finalist Casper Ruud in the Monte-Carlo third round (Ruud retired in the second).

Even-numbered years have also been when Auger-Aliassime shines brightest on clay’s biggest stage. In 2022, the Montrealer reached the French Open fourth round for the first time, forcing soon-to-be 14-time champion Rafael Nadal to a fifth set. Two years later, he fell in the same round to another eventual titlist, Alcaraz, then returned to Roland-Garros a few months later for the 2024 Paris Olympics, where he was one win short of a bronze medal in singles (he secured it in mixed doubles).

Canadians will hope that that trend continues in 2026 as Auger-Aliassime enters Roland-Garros as a Top 5 player for the first time in his career.

- Francesco

8) Ben Shelton (+2)

Actual Ranking: 6
2026 Record: 17-7
Notable Recent Results: ATP 500 Munich Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Fourth Round (2025)

Americans and clay don’t generally get along, but Shelton changed that narrative a bit this spring. His victory at the 500-level event in Munich was the biggest title for an American on European clay since Andre Agassi won Rome in 2002. The run was an impressive one for Shelton that included wins over Joao Fonseca and Flavio Cobolli.

The big server’s game style is not necessarily the most conducive to clay, but at the end of the day, with a delivery as big as Shelton’s, he is going to be a threat on any surface. He has even showed a penchant for success at Roland-Garros before, reaching the fourth round last year and taking a set off the defending/eventual champion Alcaraz.

- Pete

9) Rafael Jodar (New)

Actual Ranking: 29
2026 Record: 22-10
Notable Recent Results: ATP 250 Marrakech Champion
Best Roland-Garros Result: Debut

A Spanish Rafael having success on clay? Sounds familiar...

What a breakthrough clay swing the 19-year-old had. He kicked off the spring with his first ATP Tour title in Marrakech and followed it up with a semifinal in Barcelona and back-to-back Masters 1000 quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome. The teen was one of three players to reach at least the quarter-finals at two of the three clay 1000s (along with Sinner and Ruud) and was the only player on tour to reach at least four quarter-finals during the clay swing.

He will be making his Roland-Garros debut and it will be just his second Grand Slam main draw. If he can translate his game from best-of-three to best-of-five, Jodar could be primed for a dramatic debut in Paris, perhaps even reminiscent of another Spanish teen named Rafael 21 years ago.

- Pete

10) Everyone else

No, that is not a typo or a placeholder we forgot to replace. Realistically, this entire list could have been 1) Jannik Sinner, 2) Everyone else.

As has already been stated, you would have to go back to prime Nadal to find a Grand Slam tournament where one player was as overwhelming a favourite as Sinner is in this one. While the eight men in spots 2-9 listed above are probably the biggest threats to the world No. 1, it does not feel really like any one player has any more of a chance than another at knocking off Sinner in Paris.

If Sinner does lose at any stage, it will go down as one of the biggest upsets in tennis history.

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

2026 Roland-Garros Predictions

Champion

Everyone: Jannik Sinner

Dark Horse

Pete: Ignacio Buse
Mel: Flavio Cobolli
Sarah-Jade: Valentin Vacherot
Eddie: Alexander Blockx
Pat: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Francesco: Dino Prizmic

Bold Prediction

Pete: Someone age 20 or younger will reach the semifinals.
Mel: Arthur Fils will reach the semifinals.
Sarah-Jade: Gael Monfils will reach the quarter-final in his final appearance at his home Grand Slam.
Jonathan, Pat, Ravi, Eddie: Rafael Jodar reaches the semifinals
Francesco: Arthur Fils or Rafael Jodar will reach the semis

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Feature Photo : Peter Staples/ATP Tour