ATP Power Rankings: Is it Sinner Time on Clay?

Can you believe we made it to April and STILL haven’t had an Alcaraz-Sinner match in 2026?

The New Two have combined to claim every big title on the calendar so far, with Alcaraz completing the career Grand Slam at the Australian Open while Sinner became the first man in nearly a decade to complete the Sunshine Double. But neither had to go through the other to do it.

Heading into the Sunshine Double, it was the Spaniard with all the momentum, but now the Italian is the one in dominant form. So who is going to win out on the dirt? Or is someone else going to break up their party? The National Bank Open Power Rankings dive in as the clay season gets underway.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last edition of the Power Rankings from before Indian Wells.)

*Note: Results from events the week of March 30 are not included.

1. Carlos Alcaraz (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2026 Record: 17-2
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells SF
Best Big Clay Result: Monte-Carlo (2025), Madrid (Twice), Rome (2025), Roland Garros (Twice) Champion

There is little to suggest that Alcaraz won’t be back in the winner’s circle during the clay swing. The Spaniard is back on his favourite surface after disappointing results – by his standards – through the Sunshine Double, having his unbeaten streak broken by Daniil Medvedev in the Indian Wells semis then getting stunned by Sebastian Korda in Miami round three.

However, Alcaraz is undoubtedly still favoured to defend his Big clay crowns over the coming weeks. The world No. 1 has reached the final in each of his last five clay events, which includes back-to-back Roland-Garros titles, triumphs in both Monte-Carlo and Rome last year, and a silver medal at the 2024 Olympics in Paris.

Alcaraz missed out on Madrid last year due to injury, but he has also been a titlist in the home of his favourite soccer team – Real Madrid – hoisting the trophy in 2022 and 2023.

- Francesco

2. Jannik Sinner (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2026 Record: 19-2
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami Champion
Best Big Clay Result: Rome and Roland-Garros Runner-Up (2025)

No one in the history of the ATP Masters Series (since this level was created in 1990) has had as much momentum as Sinner currently does. The Italian has not lost a set in a Masters 1000 event since the third round of Shanghai last October and has not lost a completed match at that level since ROME almost a year ago.

However, that entire streak took place on hard courts and now he returns to the surface where he has never won a big title. Sinner is no slouch on clay, though. He has reached the quarter-finals or better at every big clay event, the semis at better at all but Madrid, and reached the final at both clay-court events he entered in 2025. And, of course, he was one point away from winning Roland-Garros in that final last June.

If anything, the fact that Sinner has not won a big clay title yet just makes it feel more inevitable that he will win one, or a few, over the next couple of months.

- Pete

3. Alexander Zverev (+3)

Actual Ranking: 3
2026 Record: 15-5
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells and Miami SF
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid (Twice) and Rome (Twice) Champion

Zverev just keeps plodding along, winning tennis matches and getting late into draws. The problem is, as it is for the rest of the tour, he cannot seem to solve the New Two. Zverev is one of just two players on the ATP Tour so far this year to reach the semifinals of all three “Big” events: the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. But he failed to reach the final at all three, losing to Alcaraz in Melbourne and Sinner at both legs of the Sunshine Double.

Still, consistency is to be commended. If Alcaraz or Sinner trips at an early hurdle, there may be no player better positioned to take advantage than Zverev. The German has won multiple titles at two of the three clay 1000 events and has reached the Roland-Garros quarter-finals in seven of the last eight seasons.

- Pete

4. Novak Djokovic (-1)

Actual Ranking: 4
2026 Record: 7-2
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells 4R
Best Big Clay Result: Monte-Carlo (Twice), Madrid (Three times), Rome (Six times), Roland Garros (Three times) Champion

Djokovic showed that he can let his experience do the talking and still be a title contender, even without many matches under his belt. The 24-time major champion will likely be selective in his Big clay events as he already withdrew from Monte-Carlo, but he is still scheduled to play in Madrid.

Djokovic’s clay success has mostly come in Rome, failing to reach the final just once from 2014-2022, a span that included four of his six titles in the Italian capital. The 38-year-old’s best recent results on the dirt have been in Paris, though, reaching the Roland-Garros semis last year and winning Olympic gold in 2024.

- Francesco

5. Daniil Medvedev (+4)

Actual Ranking: 10
2026 Record: 19-5
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Runner-Up
Best Big Clay Result: Rome Champion (2023)

There was a time when one of the biggest beefs on the ATP Tour was Medvedev vs. clay courts. But then he unexpectedly won the Italian Open in 2023 and.... he still isn’t a fan of the surface, but at least is a proven winner on it.

Even outside of that victory in Rome, he has still put up some decent results in his career on dirt, having reached at least the quarter-finals of every Big clay event. The former world No. 1 had a great start to the year on early hard courts, scoring two titles and reaching the Indian Wells final.

Are you going to bet on Medvedev to win on clay? Probably not. Could he seemingly come out of nowhere to win a big title? Definitely.

- Pete

6. Casper Ruud (New)

Actual Ranking: 12
2026 Record: 7-7
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid Champion (2025)

There may not be a player on tour happier to be back on clay than Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has done enough in his career on hard courts to avoid being classified as a full-blown clay-court specialist, but there is no doubt that he is most comfortable on the dirt.

Ruud has been one of the most reliable players on clay in the 2020s, having reached the semifinals at all four Big clay events, the finals at three of them. He is a two-time Roland-Garros runner-up and won his first Masters 1000 title a year ago in Madrid. He may have gotten off to a slow start on the hard courts in 2026, but it would not be the first time that Ruud struggled on the early hard courts only to turn things around on clay.

- Pete

7. Lorenzo Musetti (+3)

Actual Ranking: 5
2026 Record: 7-3
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Second Round
Best Big Clay Result: Monte-Carlo Runner-up (2025)

Musetti’s main goal is to be 100% for the clay season following an injury-riddled start to 2026. But, if the Italian No. 2 is healthy, expect him to dazzle on the dirt again.

The 24-year-old made at least the semis in every Big Clay event last year, highlighted by a maiden ATP Masters 1000 final in Monte-Carlo. Over that span, Musetti also earned five Top 10 victories, with his biggest being in straights over world No. 2 Zverev in Rome.

Entering the clay swing as the world No. 5, Musetti’s expectations to deliver on home soil will be high – along with Sinner – as he will seek to end the 50-year drought of an Italian men’s singles champion in Rome.

- Francesco

8. Felix Auger-Aliassime (-4)

Actual Ranking: 7
2026 Record: 15-6
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Fourth Round
Best Big Clay Result: Madrid Runner-up (2024)

Auger-Aliassime’s strong start to 2026 hit a bit of a bump, but the Canadian No. 1 can easily rediscover the level that led him to back-to-back finals in February – with a record-setting title in Montpellier.

The Montrealer seems to excel on clay in even-numbered years, starting in 2022 when he reached the quarters in Madrid and Rome, then made the fourth round at Roland-Garros. In 2024, Auger-Aliassime secured a place in his first-career ATP Masters 1000 final in Madrid, beating world No. 6 Casper Ruud on his path. The Canuck then matched his 2022 result at the French Open. Will the trend continue for Auger-Aliassime once he steps foot on the dirt in 2026?

- Francesco

9. Alex de Minaur (-2)

Actual Ranking: 6
2026 Record: 12-5
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Third Round
Best Big Clay Result: Monte-Carlo SF (2025)

The Demon went a bit cold after winning the title in Rotterdam, going 1-3 over his last three tournaments and failing to reach the round of sixteen at either leg of the Sunshine Double. It is worth noting though that his one win came in Indian Wells over Sebastian Korda, who proceeded to turn around and beat Alcaraz in Miami. Anyway, a reset on clay may be exactly what de Minaur needs right now.

Big clay wins have eluded the Aussie throughout his career, although he did have his best result on the surface a year ago when he reached the Monte-Carlo semifinals. Fitness and speed alone make de Minaur dangerous on clay. At minimum, he is going to be a tough out for any opponent because good luck getting the ball past him on the slow dirt.

- Pete

10. Ben Shelton (-5)

Actual Ranking: 9
2026 Record: 11-4
Notable Recent Result: Indian Wells Third Round
Best Big Clay Result: Roland-Garros Fourth Round (2025)

Shelton has shown a lot of promise on the dirt over the last few years. The American No. 2 won his first clay-court title in Houston in 2024, then made the final in Munich the year after. In 2025 as well, Shelton earned his best result at Roland-Garros, reaching the fourth round and taking a set off eventual champion Alcaraz.

The National Bank Open champion has withdrawn from Monte-Carlo, leaving some room to rest as the Atlantan looks for his best results in Rome and Madrid, which would entail reaching at least round four.

- Francesco

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Julie Gravel - Marketing Director, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

Bold prediction for the clay swing:

Pete: Novak Djokovic only plays one tournament before Roland-Garros.
Mel: Someone not named Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner will win one of the three Masters 1000 events during the clay season.
Jonathan: Sinner overtakes Alcaraz and heads into Roland-Garros as the world No. 1.
Eddie: Casper Ruud stakes his claim as the third favourite heading into Roland Garros with a Masters 1000 triumph.
Pat: Gabriel Diallo enters the Top 20 by Roland-Garros
Francesco: Jannik Sinner wins Monte-Carlo and Rome.
Ravi: Carlos Alcaraz gets a new haircut before the French Open

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Feature Photo : ATP Tour