ATP Power Rankings: Sinner, Alcaraz Looking for…

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Perhaps not since the late 2000s when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were head and shoulders above the rest of the tour did a major event feel like such a two-horse race.

Heading into the 2025 US Open, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the overwhelming favourites and with good reason. They are in a battle for the No. 1 ranking and have faced off in the last four finals at events where they both played (Rome, Roland-Garros, Wimbledon, Cincinnati).

If one of them wins the US Open, that will make two years in a row that the pair swept the majors. The last time only two men won Grand Slam titles over a two year period? Federer and Nadal in 2006-2007.

The world No. 1 ranking is also on the line between the two in New York. The only way Sinner is guaranteed to stay on top is if he defends his title. A loss at any stage opens the door for Alcaraz, who can take over the top spot for sure if he wins the title.

So, who can stop the ATP’s new duopoly? The NBO power ranking’s panel sizes up the competition in New York.

(Brackets indicate change in position since the last regular edition of the Power Rankings from before Wimbledon, as the last edition before the National Bank Open was themed.)

1. Carlos Alcaraz (-)

Actual Ranking: 2
2025 Record: 54-6
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Champion
Best US Open Result: Champion (2022)

Carlos Alcaraz and Sinner seem to just trade places when it comes to these power rankings but, despite being second on this list, the Spaniard could very well have his name etched on the US Open trophy in 2025.

The 22-year-old has made seven-straight finals, most recently in Cincinnati where he won the title with a retirement win over Sinner in the final.

As unbelievable as it sounds, Alcaraz’s triumph in Ohio was his first finals appearance at a big event on the concrete since Indian Wells in 2024, but that Cincinnati title could give him all the momentum to end Sinner’s dominance at hard-court Slams.

- Francesco

2. Jannik Sinner (-)

Actual Ranking: 1
2025 Record: 31-4
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Runner-Up
Best US Open Result: Champion (2024)

An apparent illness in the Cincinnati final has raised some extra intrigue, but assuming it was just a bug and that he will be good to go by Sunday, there is every reason to believe the man who won the last three hard-court Grand Slams can make it four straight over the coming weeks in New York.

Sinner has reached at least the final of every Masters 1000 and Grand Slam event, regardless of surface, that he has participated in over the last 12 months. His last early exit was Montreal 2024. The world No. 1 has become Mr. Reliable in the big events and is particularly daunting on hard courts.

History is not necessarily on Sinner’s side here, though, as he is looking to become the first player to defend the US Open title since Roger Federer in 2008 and to become the first person to win both hard court majors in the same year for consecutive seasons since the Swiss in 2006-2007.

- Pete

3. Taylor Fritz (+2)

Actual Ranking: 4
2025 Record: 38-15
Notable Recent Result: Toronto Semifinal
Best US Open Result: Runner-up (2024)

Fritz has been a victim of some impressive runs in 2025. The world No. 4 has lost to five eventual champions and most recently lost to Terence Atmane in Cincinnati during the French qualifier’s trip to the semifinal.

But that’s not to say Fritz can’t go on a deep run himself. The 27-year-old reached his maiden Grand Slam final at the 2024 US Open, earning Top 10 wins over Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev before losing to Sinner for the title.

Heading into Flushing Meadows with a career-high ranking, Fritz could have a favourable path to his second-straight US Open final.

- Francesco

4. Alexander Zverev (+2)

Actual Ranking: 3
2025 Record: 43-16
Notable Recent Result: Toronto and Cincinnati SF
Best US Open Result: Runner-Up (2020)

Like Sinner, there are some questions about Zverev’s health heading into the US Open as he also bowed out against Alcaraz looking under the weather in Cincinnati.

That being said, the German looks like he is back to being one of the most consistent players on tour, having reached back-to-back semifinals at the two warm-up Masters 1000 events. Zverev has reached at least the quarter-finals at five of his last six events.

Speaking of consistency, the US Open has been one of his more consistent majors. The 2020 runner-up has reached at least the quarter-finals in every appearance at Flushing Meadows since 2020.

- Pete

5. Ben Shelton (+3)

Actual Ranking: 6
2025 Record: 35-17
Notable Recent Result: Toronto Champion
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2023)

A big event final is no longer ‘uncharted territory’ for Ben Shelton. The American No. 2 won his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title at the 2025 National Bank Open in Toronto, ending Alex de Minaur’s winning streak and defeating Fritz in straight sets along the way.

Shelton also reached the semifinal in Washington and quarter-final in Cincinnati, boasting a 12-2 record on the North American hard-court swing so far. The Atlantan also made the Australian Open semifinal earlier this year.

Now, the 22-year-old is back where he made his mark in 2023, reaching the US Open semifinal, and has a great chance to cap off a career year with a first major final.

- Francesco

6. Novak Djokovic (-3)

Actual Ranking: 7
2025 Record: 26-9
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon SF
Best US Open Result: Champion (Four times)

Despite not playing in a match since the Wimbledon semifinal, it is difficult not to back four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic on his favourite surface.

The 24-time major winner had some deep runs on the concrete earlier this year, reaching the Miami final and defeating Alcaraz en route to the Australian Open semifinal where he was forced to retire.

With the 38-year-old’s vast successes, Djokovic is capable of being at his best at Flushing Meadows even without playing a match during the North American hard-court swing.

- Francesco

7. Jack Draper (-3)

Actual Ranking: 5
2025 Record: 29-9
Notable Recent Result: Wimbledon R2
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2024)

Draper’s rise through the rankings really began last year in New York with his run to the semifinals. He returns to the US Open 12 months later entrenched in the Top 10 and with a Masters 1000 title to his name.

Health is a big question mark for Draper, as he has not played since bowing out in the second round of Wimbledon. Assuming he is healthy, he figures to be among the favourites. He reached at last the fourth round at three of the last four majors and at least the quarter-finals in three of the five Masters 1000 events he’s played this year.

- Pete

8. Alex de Minaur (New)

Actual Ranking: 8
2025 Record: 37-15
Notable Recent Result: ATP 500 Washington Champion
Best US Open Result: Quarter-Finals (Twice)

De Minaur looks like he is back to playing his best tennis this summer, having matched the biggest title win of his career in Washington and backing it up with a quarter-final run in Toronto, where he lost to the eventual champion Shelton.

With his fitness, the Demon is a safe bet to handle the muggy conditions that often hang over New York at the end of the summer, like they did in Washington in July. Chaos can often reign at the final major of the season but the Aussie is incredibly consistent and could take advantage of a draw that opens up.

- Pete

9. Karen Khachanov (New)

Actual Ranking: 9
2025 Record: 29-18
Notable Recent Result: Toronto Runner-Up
Best US Open Result: Semifinal (2022)

It has been a resurgent summer for Khachanov, who heads to New York back inside the Top 10 for the first time since June 2023. He reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and then got to his first Masters 1000 final in almost seven years at the National Bank Open in Toronto.

While Khachanov is among the more consistent players on tour, always getting a couple of wins at every event, the US Open has been a tough one for him. He has bowed out in the first round three of the last four years, but the one time he didn’t, he reached the semis.

- Pete

10. Holger Rune (New)

Actual Ranking: 11
2025 Record: 27-16
Notable Recent Result: Cincinnati Quarter-final
Best US Open Result: 3R (2022)

Some of Rune’s best ATP Masters 1000 results have come on the concrete. The Dane reached the final in Indian Wells to begin the year and was a semifinalist in Paris and Cincinnati at the end of 2024. The 22-year-old also won the Paris Masters title in 2022.

Rune hasn’t quite found his game at the hard-court Slams but he did tie his career-best result with a respectable four-set loss in the Australian Open fourth round to eventual champion Sinner.

The former world No. 4 only has one win at Flushing Meadows but will almost certainly increase that tally this year.

- Francesco

The National Bank Open Power Rankings are a group collaboration by the Power Rankings Panel which includes:

Pete Borkowski – Manager of Editorial and Player Coverage, Tennis Canada
Melissa Boyd – Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Sarah-Jade Champagne – Content Specialist, Tennis Canada
Jonathan Chan - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Edward Lee – Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Hugues Leger – Producer, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Charlotte Robillard-Millette – Communications Coordinator, Tennis Canada
Abraham Santerre – Content Creator, Podcast Sur La Ligne
Patrick Steski - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada
Francesco Tosini - Content Writer, Tennis Canada
Ravi Ubha - Content Contributor, Tennis Canada

2025 US Open Predictions

Champion:

Pete: Carlos Alcaraz
Mel: Jannik Sinner
Sarah-Jade: Ben Shelton
Jonathan: Carlos Alcaraz
Francesco: Jannik Sinner
Ravi: Jannik Sinner

Dark Horse:

Pete: Karen Khachanov
Mel: Frances Tiafoe
Sarah-Jade: Tommy Paul
Jonathan: Alexander Bublik
Francesco: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ravi: Gabriel Diallo

Bold Prediction:

Pete: An unseeded player will reach the quarter-finals.
Mel: After winning the NBO in Toronto, Ben Shelton will reach his first Grand Slam final in New York.
Sarah-Jade: Ben Shelton repeats his Toronto success and wins his first Grand Slam.
Jonathan: The final will NOT be Sinner vs. Alcaraz
Francesco: No American reaches the semifinal
Ravi: Andrey Rublev makes his first Grand Slam semifinal

Feature Photo : Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour